In Contention

Tag: Letters to Juliet

  • More halfway-mark blues

    A few weeks ago, I commented upon the scarcity of viable awards contenders released in the last six months, coming to the unsurprising conclusion that there hasn’t been much to, well, comment upon. In the past few days, however, Variety’s Tim Gray and EW’s Dave Karger have revisited the subject … and haven’t come up with very much either.

    A common emerging sentiment is that, with such a meagre first-half slate, filling 10 slots on a Best Picture ballot could be a challenge for many voters – and could ultimately result in a decidedly weak nominee field, one with more “Blind Sides” than “District 9s.”

    Sasha Stone has challenged this by suggesting that, in what she (if not everyone else) believes will be “a great year for film,” the Academy may end up looking to arthouse or non-summer genre fare to fill the gaps – though, to take two of her listed alternatives, it has to be said that while most critics would be down with “Winter’s Bone” making the list, “Shutter Island” would be a much more contentious nominee.

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  • MONDAY CENTS: Uh-oh

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The number one movie over the long Memorial Day weekend is “Shrek Forever After” with $55.7 million. That’s the lowest amount for a chart-topping film over Memorial Day since “Casper” in 1995. While Paramount will be delighted to hold on to the top spot and claim a morale boosting 39% dip for the jolly green giant, it won’t mask the fact that this weekend was kind of a disaster for studios and theater owners.

    Dropping 39% over the three days and only 21% is a sorely needed win for “Shrek Forever After.” That gives it much better legs than the last installment and saves it from recording an embarrassing total. When it’s all said and done, it will still be the lowest grossing film in the franchise, but it will handily pass “How to Train Your Dragon” at least.

    The runner-up spot is a toss up. “Sex and the City 2” claimed it on the three day weekend, but estimates have “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” overtaking it for the four day. But let’s start with the lovely ladies. Carrie Bradshaw and company started on Thursday with $14.3 million, as previously reported. For a Thursday, that was fine as long as the Friday saw a significant uptick. But it didn’t.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Pain in the ‘Shrek’

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    We did it guys! Collectively, we have decided that the Shrek property, after three dreadful installments, is no longer an untouchable juggernaut, but just a regular old extremely profitable movie. We have also decided that summer 2010 is going to give movie theater owners a lot of headaches, for which the only prescription is to make popcorn $17 and sell ads on the back of the chairs in front of you. Enjoy!

    Let’s clarify. “Shrek Forever After” is the number one movie at the box office with $71.3 million, instantly becoming the most pathetic film ever to make $70 million in three days. Why? Maybe because “Ice Age: The Meltdown” can debut with $82.6 million in March? But mostly because “Shrek the Third” debuted with $140.5 million in 2007. When you factor in the fact that “Shrek Forever After” probably earned most of its coin from inflated 3D prices, you are looking at less than half the tickets sold from one film to the next. That’s an almost unprecedented exodus for an established franchise like this.

    General fatigue with the characters and the universe is the obvious explanation, but that still only takes you so far. We’re three weeks in now and summer 2010 is posting up consistently disappointing numbers. Granted, “Iron Man 2” and “Robin Hood” came in right around expectations, but the lack of an encouraging or surprising box office performer so far this summer is cause for concern.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Taking ‘Hood’ stock

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott helped steal $37.1 million from the poor on behalf of the rich as “Robin Hood” enters the chart in second place this week. The humorless duo courted the older adult audience, and in that respect, this is a solid enough debut. Not quite up to the snuff of “Gladiator,” but a better start than the $22.7 million summer 2005 launch of Crowe’s “Cinderella Man,” a film which is often cited as the one that killed big budget adult dramas being released in the heart of summer.

    Where the film goes from here is up to the word of mouth which, from what I can gather, is mediocre. It’ll need a healthy push to reach $100 million, but I think we’re looking at another “Public Enemies” situation where the film stalls out just under the mark around $95 million. But before you bring Universal some hankies to cry in, you can expect that number to be almost tripled in overseas territories. Crowe lives to leave another interview!

    So that means that “Iron Man 2” is the number one film again this week. Good job Iron Man. The comic book superhero dropped a perilous 59% and continues to do the absolute bare minimum to avoid being called a disappointment. These grosses are perfunctory and little else and it’s sad that we’ve reached a point that a possible $350 million finish is blasé. Again, the film has already topped the $200 million mark overseas as well so this is a very profitable venture for Marvel. The third film is already in pre-production and Martin Lawrence has entered negotiations to replace Don Cheadle.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Robin’ of schlocksley

    *All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Fresh off a tepid debut at Cannes, Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe have unleashed their fifth collaboration upon the world. Forget Scorsese and DiCaprio, these guys are taking actor-director bromance to another level. Together, they’ve given us Oscar winning hits (“Gladiator”), non-Oscar winning hits (“American Gangster”) and non-Oscar winning non-hits (“A Good Year” and “Body of Lies”). Which category will “Robin Hood” fall under?

    The one comparison everybody can’t stop making is to “Gladiator” so let’s start there. The sword and sandals epic also launched in May, of 2000, and slashed up a $51.4 million debut. That was at the very beginning of May with no other summer movies out in competition it should be noted. Both director and star have become much more prolific and popular since then so maybe we should assume that “Robin Hood” could do a little better.

    Not so fast! Medieval/historical epics have had a torrid last few years at the box office. Scott’s own “Kingdom of Heaven” was supposed to kick off the 2006 summer season with a bang but only managed a $24.4 million debut and $58.8 million finish. Oliver Stone gave it the old college try with “Alexander” and found $17.5 million to start en route to a $43.9 million total. Granted, people hated that thing.

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