In a Best Picture field as wide open as 2006’s crop has proven itself to be, a film like Stephen Frears’s “The Queen” seems to have as much going for it as the next entry. It is an effort with appeal on a number of levels, one that could certainly be deemed a healthy “consensus” victor on Oscar night. Truly, who DOESN’T like this movie?

Presented with the idea that his film has as much of a chance as the rest of the lineup, Frears’s instinct is to keep such expectations muted in his periphery. “Don’t say that,” he told me in a telephone interview from London. “It’s bad for my heart!”

Regardless, of the nominated films, “The Queen” has positioned itself as the most critically acclaimed of the lot. Near universal appraise and approval has accompanied the effort since its October domestic release. And the awards season has followed suit; “The Queen” is second only to “Babel” in total nominations amongst the Best Picture nominees.

I've tried to hold this until the end of the day. You know, happy thoughts and such. But while the Academy's announcement this morning was refreshingly "out of the box" in a number of arenas, I have to say that elsewhere, disasters are lurking.

An Oscar strategist pointed out the obvious to me immediately this morning, noting how incredibly lack-luster and downright incomprehensible the acting branch's decisions have become. These four categories rounded themselves out in a very predictable fashion as the season rolled around, and indeed, the only SAG snubee to show up was Mark Wahlberg. But what many seemed to be ignoring was the fact that, by and large, the actors backed some lame performances all season long.

For the first time in Oscar history, the leading nominations tally does not include a Best Picture nod. This is a shocking turn of events indeed. "Dreamgirls"'s exclusion from the big five joins "Volver"'s exclusion from Best Foreign Language Film as the biggest snubs of the lot.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences deserves some props this morning. They went their own way, like they always do. And in a race that really seemed locking down slowly in various races, we were met with a ton of surprises.

Best Picture nominees "Babel" and "The Queen" followed "Dreamgirls" with 7 and 6 nominations respectively, while the little film that could, "Little Miss Sunshine," racked up four. "Pan's Labyrinth" was also well-liked, taking down six mentions. But the real story of the morning has to be "Letters from Iwo Jima," which apparently made its way into more than a few DVD players over the holidays last month, pushed its way to a four nod tally including Best Picture and Best Director.

And guess what? I think "Letters from Iwo Jima" wins this Best Picture race.

Those who tuned into the Golden Globes telecast on Monday saw the usual pomp and circumstance of a Hollywood Foreign Press Association awards show. Save for that pesky clip of dramatic Best Picture nominee "Little Children" that failed to make an appearance alongside the other nominated films throughout the evening.

Yes, Jennifer Garner was supposed to waltz on stage and present the clip, but the moment was pulled from the rundown due to a bloated running time, according to a line of reasoning being fed to New Line Cinema and Bona Fide Productions.

The SAG has spoken, and the big story of the morning is...

Wait. There is no big story. After yesterday's sober PGA annoucement, the Screen Actors Guild answered in kind with an equally unspectacular list of nominees. All the usual suspects are pretty much there and accounted for. There isn't even an eyebrow-raiser like last year's "Hustle & Flow" ensemble nomiantion to chew on. Considering the DGA hasn't gone out on a limb since Christopher Nolan got some props for "Memento" in 2000, I guess we're looking at a paint-by-numbers season from here on out.

And why does "Blood Diamond" keep asserting itself into this year's film awards season?

As reported yesterday, Leonardo DiCaprio was cock-blocked by handling from getting a lead nomination for "The Departed." But as Warner Bros. brass likely had hoped, he ended up with a double nod for his performances in "Blood Diamond" and "The Departed." As a result, however, Jack Nicholson was left off the supporting bill (an indicated possibility by SAG nom comm member Sam yesterday). It's all well and good that Leo gets the double-dip today, but it's left to be seen whether he splits himself to nil on the 23rd.

I felt compelled this morning, with renewed faith in balanced government and a few more relevant whims of fancy zipping through my brain, to update the Oscar predictions in the sidebar. Rest assured, chart updates should be coming back soon enough (hopefully as soon as next Monday's column). It seems as though my computer is on the road to recovery after a horrendous bout of Screwkrisandhisworkitis.

Anyway, a few things have been bugging me the last few weeks regarding the predictions, so I thought I'd give things a facelift.

The "Buzz-o-meter" is up over at the LA TImes' The Envelope site, and I think the pundits involved have hit the Best Picture nail on the head, chalking up "Babel," "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," "Flags of Our Fathers," and "The Queen" for nominations. I too will likely be dumping "The Good German" from my predictions next week, as the trailer makes the film look too stylish for its own good, however intriguing on the whole. That's my inclination, anyway, and that leaves Warner Bros. with a slot open. Enter Scorsese's "The Departed," which boasts accross-the-board appeal that can't be ignored.

Now, if only "Flags of Our Fathers" had hit the speed bump a lot of us expected it to hit today, "Little Miss Sunshine" could have found some room.

More on Monday.

Strong reviews for Ryan Gosling's amazing performance in "Half Nelson" are enough to give the actor serious consideration in this year's awards derby, especially with major players either taking their exits (Sean Penn, Ed Harris) or hoping to find traction in lesser products (Derek Luke). ThinkFilm has a major push in store for the actor, but the awards train doesn't look like it will stop there.

The team will also be hanging supporting actress hopes on Shareeka Epps, as well as the screenplay, written by Anna Boden and Ryan Fleck. Worth mentioning here is that the duo's script is an ADAPTED screenplay, not an original. It was adapted to feature length from Boden and Fleck's Sundance award-winning short "Gowanus." Gosling did not appear in the short, though Epps did.

I think, with the right saturation, Gosling could certainly threaten this nomination. Other arenas might be a stretch, but it is most important for voters to actually SEE the film. Critical response is insular in and of itself and in cases such as this, it does nothing for a film other than install confidence in the studio pushing the product. So...it's a good start.

David Poland has geared up the Gurus o' Gold again over at Movie City News for a quick look from afar. This made for a nice look at what industry folks were predicting last year during the Oscar race, and a decent break from the prognostication that is so popular amongst the tenacious fanworld of Oscarland.

Personally I'm surprised anyone still thinks "Babel" can be seen as appealing enough throughout the Academy to garner a Best Picture nomination, but most of us agree that "Dreamgirls" and "World Trade Center" are shaping up to be great bets, while "The Good German" is on the fence for me, and "Flags of Our Fathers" (to round out the Gurus' top five) has become something of a question mark in my view as time has passed.

According to the LA Times, Lionsgate's Oscar hopeful "Trade," starring Kevin Kline in what could be a major awards role for the "A Prairie Home Companion" star, has been moved to an April 2007 release date. So cross out that #4 slot I gave to Kline just yesterday in the "Under the Radar" column.

This is a somewhat curious decision if you ask me, considering how terribly thin the studio's output looks to be this year. I guess this gives them some muscle to put behind "Bug" in any case. Regardless, unless it totally screws the pooch, expect "Trade," a gritty drama concerning sex trafficking, to be a major force in next year's awards season.

Boy am I getting bummed at news affecting my columns so quickly this month. So it goes...

I just took a look at the new trailer for Lasse Hallstrom's "The Hoax," which Miramax is releasing later this year. In the film, Richard Gere portrays Clifford Irving, who infamously sold a falsified biography of Howard Hughes to McGraw-Hill in the 1970s.

The film looks light and fluffy, if you ask me, with a performance from Gere that looks as potentially eccentric as it could be rote. But the sell is obviously full-blown comedy, so maybe that talk of Gere's Oscar prospects that has been circling the project for some time was all for naught. Globes attention? Looks more likely, but these are decisions left to be made once we've actually seen the film.

Further trailer talk ("The Prestige") at The Blog.