Lots of movement today. "Dreamgirls" missed out with the CDG only to pick up the CAS minutes later. Big wins for "Curse of the Golden Flower" and "Pan's Labyrinth."

ART DIRECTORS GUILD

Contemporary:
"Casino Royale," Peter Lamont

Fantasy:
"Pan's Labyrinth," Eugenio Caballero

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Huo Tingxiou

The first of two big wins for "Pan's" today, and one of two surprising victories for "Curse." This race really is up in the air, and honestly, judging one's predictions based on what the guild saw as award-worthy might be a bit foolhardy. This Oscar is no more "Pan's" than it is any of the other nominees'. We'll see how it plays out.

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY

"Dreamgirls," Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, Willie D. Burton

We're still likely looking at our Oscar winner, but Academy members still have a soft spot for war films. Watch out for "Flags."

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD

Contemporary:
"The Queen," Consolata Boyle

Fantasy:
"Pan's Labyrinth," Lala Huerte

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Chung Man Yee

Gotta say no shocks there, as "Curse" might have upset "Dreamgirls," but really, it's been the musical's competition for the Oscar since day one. "Prada" was destined to miss this boat to "The Queen," and who didn't think "Pan's" would reign in fantasy?

And Alan Arkin won Best Supporting Actor? Food...for...thought. "Little Miss Sunshine" also won Best Original Screenplay.

I usually steer clear of this awards body. Not a lot of excitement for my taste. But at least "The Last King of Scotland" landed three big awards. "Pan's Labyrinth" also took home three, while "Children of Men," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen," and "United 93" claimed two apiece.

(Full list of winners after the jump.)

Stunning! Surprising! Scandalous! Shocking! Surely not!!!

Moving on...

Other winners of the evening included Arunas Matelis for the documentary "Before Flying Back to Earth," in something of an upset over Amy Berg's "Deliver Us From Evil." Walter Hill took home the win for television's "Broken Trail," while Jon Cassar and Richard Shepherd won television series awards for "24" and "Ugly Betty" respectively.

EDITED TO ADD (11:03): Variety now has a briefing up (time-stamped at about twenty minutes earlier than the story ACTUALLY went up, mind you).

The Screen Actors Guild really botched the opportunity to stir things up tonight, seemingly doing what they have been told throughout the season and bestowing their acting awards upon pretty much the expected lot.

"Little Miss Sunshine" took the award for Best Cast in a Motion Picture, but failed to pick up wins in the supporting categories for Abigail Breslin and Alan Arkin. "Dreamgirls," meanwhile, took home wins in two of its three nominated categories, the most awarded film of the night, yet, not a Best Picture Oscar nominee. All wins were telegraphed, predicted from here (well, not here) to eternity, and pretty much sum up the buzz that was being generated two weeks ago.

"The Departed," again, seems to be lacking embrace from the actors, shockingly enough. This is the best film nominated for Best Picture this year, with an array of stellar performances. Now we see one acting nomination at the Academy, no wins from the SAG, and a pretty clear indication that the actors branch isn't as supportive of the film as may have been assumed.

This is officially the most wide open race in Oscar history. Four films have won the four big precursor Best Picture awards. Apparently I'm the only guy that expected this (in however nail-biting a fashion).

To me, "Little Miss Sunshine" is the golden film story for producers if there ever was one. A film gets made on the cheap, comes from a screenwriter who spent his days in the world of script coverage and personal assistance. It goes on to to a film festival, in this case, Sundance, gets purchased for a record amount of money. The film hits the marketplace, makes back the investment and then some. Oh yeah, and you'd have to be a total ass to find beef with anyone involved with the picture.

A huge, massive congratulations to the Fox Searchlight team and to the producers of the film. This is well-deserved. I just spoke with Michael Arndt today at a Q&A, I expect to interview Jon and Val within the week. But man, this stuff, it just couldn't happen to nicer people.

By the way, the fifth likely Best Picture nominee that hasn't received a major Best Picture win? "The Queen?" It'll be the most critically acclaimed of the likely five Best Picture nominees.

Wide...open...race.

The nominees:

Contemporary:
"Babel," Brigitte Broch
"Casino Royale," Peter Lamont
"The Da Vinci Code," Allan Cameron
"The Departed," Kristi Zea
"The Queen," Alan Macdonald

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Huo Tingxiao
"Dreamgirls," John Myhre
"Flags of Our Fathers," Henry Bumstead
"The Good Shepehrd," Jeannine Oppewall
"The Prestige," Nathan Crowley

Fantasy:
"Children of Men," Jim Clay, Geoffrey Kirkland
"Pan's Labyrinth," Eugenio Caballero
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Rick Heinrichs
"Superman Returns," Guy Hendrix Dyas
"V for Vendetta," Owen Patterson

I was 8/15 in my predictions, and would've been 9/15 if not for the placement of "Pirates."

It's nice that the late Henry Bumstead received this recognition, and really, it might translate to an Oscar nomination for his swangsong efforts "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" (seriously - no guild love...no one has SEEN the damn thing).

The biggest omission is "Marie Antoinette," but I've suspected for a long time that it wasn't on steady ground. After all, you're gonna have pretty sets if you shoot in Versailles. How much actual DESIGN was involved?

The guild stampede continues for "Babel," with 8 mentions (to "Dreamgirls"'s 7), while "The Queen" also stays in the thick of the precursor hunt. I'm personally happy for Nathan Crowley and his wonderful work on "The Prestige," but to be honest, I have NO idea how this will shake down for Oscar.

CORRECTION: Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell were nominated for "Con Air" in 1997 without receiving a CAS nomiantion.

The nominees:

"Babel"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"

I was 4/5 on my predictions. Of course, we all know "Dreamgirls" and "Pirates" were expected to show up here. I will say the inclusion of "Blood Diamond" is no shock, given the popularity of Anna Behlmer amongst her peers. I've been pointing to this film for some time as a tech-likely Oscar film, and though Eduardo Serra missed with the ASC, it looks like the "Bling BANG" of Edward Zwick's largely critically reviled effort spoke to the audio engineers enough.

"Flags of Our Fathers" finally gets some action - where expected, to be honest. I've heard from guild insiders (well - A guild insider) that the sound mixers had a lot of respect for the work on that film, and that despite great dual work, even the engineers of both "Flags" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" put their own eggs in the former basket. But it's nice that Clint Eastwood's efforts are starting to get just a little more traction (following Monday's Golden Globe win for "Letters").

Finally, yet another guild mention for "Babel" is great news for the film indeed, and well-deserved. But one might want to consider that, in the Society's 13 year history, their nominations have only lined-up 100% with the AMPAS twice. Four of the films that have been left off in the cross over were eventual Best Picture nominees, including last year's "Babel" comparison (though I still don't personally GET the comparison beyond sprawling ensemble), "Crash."

This year, if one of the Society's choices falls off, I expect it could be "Babel." Six times the replacement has been a Best Picture nominee, so there's hope for "The Departed" yet. Seven times the replacement has been an actioner with lots of noise, also boading well for "The Departed," but perhaps more so for "Apocalypto," mixed by veteran Oscar almost-champs Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell.

That is all, of course, assuming the Society didn't hit the nail on the head once again, which they may have. And seriously, given the guild approval across the board, "Babel" has slid into an interesting frontrunner position. It currently leads the field in precursor mentions that matter.

No alterations in the Oscar predictions until the final pre-nominations column on Monday, but these mentions and the rest of the week in guilds will certainly be taken into account.

(More commentary, plus the CAS press release, after the jump.)

The Broadcast Film Critics Association seemed to think tonight - well - for most of the night, that the Best Picture race was between "Dreamgirls" and "Little Miss Sunshine" at the Oscars. The two films were neck and neck with four wins apiece (two performances each, screenplay and ensemble wins for the latter, song and soundtrack wins for the former). Meanwhile, other Best Pic frontrunners "Babel," (which ended the night with nothing) "The Departed" (a meager two - but the big two) and "The Queen" (one expected win for Best Actress) pretty much sat on the sidelines.

This group is known for being a rather predictive precursor, and if things go the way of the Critics' Choice in February, Martin Scorsese and his hard-boiled crime drama have an open shot at taking the crown. But more than anything, tonight ought to clear the air for anyone who's gone through the entire year huffing and puffing and making proclamations that it had been written in the stars: the 2006-2007 Oscar season is far from over.

Also, a big congratulations to the Fox Searchlight crew, who took down five wins tonight, with Forest Whitaker's Best Actor win joining the "Little Miss Sunshine" quartet. Add "Borat"'s Best Comedy Film win to the mix and I guess that's six for Century City.

As for my predictions, I went 12/19. Not bad, right?

(Full list of BFCA winners after the jump.)

The nominees from the Costume Designers Guild are:

Contemporary:
"Babel," Michael Wilkinson
"Casino Royale," Lindy Hemming
"The Devil Wears Prada," Patricia Field
"The Queen," Consolata Boyle
"Little Miss Sunshine," Nancy Steiner
(I was 2/5)

Period:
"Curse of the Golden Flower," Chung Man Yee
"Dreamgirls," Sharen Davis
"The Illusionist," Ngila Dickson
"Marie Antoinette," Milena Canonero
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Penny Rose (?)
(I was 2/5, predicted "Pirates" in fantasy)

Fantasy:
"Eragon," Kym Barret
"The Founatin," Renee April
"V for Vendetta," Sammy Sheldon
"Pan's Labyrinth," Lala Huete
"X-Men: The Last Stand," Judianna Makovsky
(I was 3/5)

Check out the story at Variety.

More early guild support for "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine." The mention for "Dreamgirls" was expected, and perhaps, same with "The Queen." And there's lots of passion out there for "The Illusionist." Screenplay, costumes, score, etc. Watch out.

All the Oscar nominees may in fact end up being represented here. I've been sticking with "Bobby," "Curse of the Golden Flower," "Dreamgirls," "The Illusionist" and "Marie Antoinette" for a week now, but Julie Weiss might be weak, so perhaps "The Devil Wears Prada," "The Queen" or even "Pirates" can show up instead.

Surprisingly, the work put into transforming Helen Mirren into Queen Elizabeth II was left off the makeup bake-off today, leaving us with an open slot in the eventual list of nominees. I expect that slot to be filled quite easily by "Pan's Labyrinth."

Here's the release (by way of Oscarwatch):

“Apocalypto”
“Click”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“The Prestige”
“The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause”
“X-Men The Last Stand”

On Saturday, January 20, the Academy’s Makeup Award Nominating Committee will view ten minutes of excerpts from each of the seven shortlisted films. Following the screenings, members will vote to nominate three films for Oscar consideration.

Nominations for the 79th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 23, 2007, at 5:30 a.m. PST in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater.

Academy Awards for outstanding film achievements of 2006 will be presented on Sunday, February 25, 2007, at the Kodak Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center®, and televised live by the ABC Television Network at 5 p.m. PST (8 p.m. EST), beginning with a half-hour arrivals segment, “The Road to the Oscars®.”

FYI, I'll be updating the predictions sidebar throughout the week as the guilds continue to chime in, but I'll be leaving the chart update until Monday as usual.

The haughty-taughty National Society of Film Critics announced their winners today, and in most cases, it's a predictable rundown. The winners:

Best Picture
"Pan's Labyrinth"

Best Director
Paul Greengrass, "United 93"

Best Actor
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

Best Actress
Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Best Supporting Actor
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

Best Supporting Actress
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada" and "A Prairie Home Companion"

Best Screenplay
"The Queen"

Best Cinematography
"Children of Men"

Best Experimental Film
"Inland Empire"

The biggest boost here is for Mark Wahlberg, surprisingly taking the Best Supporting Actor win away from Jackie Earle Haley. Meryl Streep gets classification in the category she's supposed to be in, and at least her wonderful work in "A Prairie Home Companion" finally got some love.

Elsewhere, Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren continue their precursor domination, while "Pan's Labyrinth" might have made a further surge into potential Best Director or Best Original Screenplay territory.

We'll be back in the thick of it with another Oscar column on Monday.

The press release:

Seven Vie for Visual Effects Oscar®

Beverly Hills, CA — The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced that seven films are in consideration for achievement in Visual Effects for the 79th Academy Awards®.

The films are listed below in alphabetical order:

“Casino Royale”
“Eragon”
“Night at the Museum”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“Poseidon”
“Superman Returns”
“X-Men The Last Stand”

On Wednesday, January 17, the Academy’s Visual Effects Award nominating committee will view 15-minute film excerpts from each of the seven shortlisted films. Following the screenings, members will vote to nominate three films for Oscar consideration.

Nominations for the 79th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 23, 2007, at 5:30 a.m. PST in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater.

Academy Awards for outstanding film achievements of 2006 will be presented on Sunday, February 25, 2007, at the Kodak Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center®, and televised live by the ABC Television Network at 5 p.m. PST, beginning with a half-hour arrivals segment.

The striking omissions here are "Charlotte's Web" and, especially, "Flags of Our Fathers," which itself received a Satellite nomination in the category a few weeks back (which admittedly doesn't mean much - but it goes to show people were considering the film's visual effects sequences).

Overall, the list is a rather poor sampling of product. I'd expect "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" and "Superman Returns" are still secure, with the last nomination likely going to "Night at the Museum," which has popped up recently as a real contender in any case.

Well, following what was perhaps the clumsiest awards announcement in the history of awards announcements, the nominees for the Hollywood Foreign Press’s Golden Globe Awards are finally in. Variety was the first to publish the complete rundown.

Alejandro González Iñárritu’s “Babel” led the pack this morning with seven nominations. This is a very interesting development, but it is worth keeping in mind that just three years ago “Cold Mountain” landed the most Golden Globe nominations and still failed to score a Best Picture nod with the Academy. “Babel” has long been known as a film that went over swimmingly with the HFPA, as proven in the announcement this morning. It is, after all, an international tale. But will the AMPAS be as welcoming? More to ponder as that seven film crunch for five spots stays in a clear gridlock.

The real surprise, well, to most anyway, is “Bobby” landing that nomination in the Best Picture – Drama category. This shouldn’t come as much of a shock given that the film is full of stars and the HFPA would certainly love to have each and every one of them at their awards ceremony (as noted in my conversation with Gerard, they’re “starfuckers” after all).

We always talk about this actor or that, this filmmaker or that who deserves to win an Oscar but hasn't. Some consider this lineage the "Hall of Shame" for the Academy, if you will. The one person I've always felt has been left off such consideration lists is musical composer Ennio Morricone, who added the heart and soul to the Spaghetti Western movement through his briilliant work with director Sergio Leone. Not to mention the other memorable works of film music he's ushered into creation. He was nominated for the Oscar five times, most recently in 2000 for his work on "Malèna." Well The Hollywood Reporter is reporting that Morricone is set to receive this year's Honorary Oscar at the Academy Awards next February.

Some consider Morricone's work with Leone his most memorable, others his efforts on Brian De Palma's "The Untouchables" and Roland Joffé's "The Mission." But I've always felt "The Man with the Harmonica" from Leone's "Once Upon a Time in the West" to be the single greatest piece of film music composition (not to mention that film being, to my mind, one of the greatest films of all time). In any case, Morricone never won an Oscar, until now. The annual "Sorry we never gave you a proper award" Oscar. But we'll take it. Talk about a truly deserving recipient.

Congratullations, Mr. Morricone.

Here is the Rueters report [src]:

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Italian movie composer Ennio Morricone, famed for his work on such "spaghetti westerns" as "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly" and "A Fistful of Dollars," will receive an honorary Oscar during the Academy Awards ceremony next February, organisers said on Wednesday.

Morricone, 78, has composed more than 300 motion picture scores during his 45-year career, but had never won an Oscar. He was nominated five times, for "Days of Heaven" (1978), "The Mission" (1986), "The Untouchables" (1987), "Bugsy" (1991) and "Malena" (2000).

The honorary Oscar, determined by the board of governors of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, went this year to director Robert Altman, who died last month.

"The board was responding not just to the remarkable number of scores that Mr. Morricone has produced," said Academy president Sid Ganis, "but to the fact that so many of them are beloved and popular masterpieces."

Morricone's other credits include the scores for "Once upon a Time in America," "Cinema Paradiso," "Bulworth," "In the Line of Fire," "La Cage aux Folles" and the 2008 release "Leningrad."

The 79th annual Academy Awards will be held in Hollywood on February 25.

(Thanks to Gerard for the tip, here.)

So the east coast crowd weighed in this afternoon, giving their top honor to Paul Greengrass's "United 93." It apparently took five ballots to get it down to this decision, and frankly, I think it's obvious that this was an easily agreed upon back-up to a likely gridlocked race between "The Queen" and "The Departed," which have awards and runner-up notices scattered throughout. "United 93" is nowhere else to be seen, not even in the runners-up for Best Director.

In any case, the big winners today are "The Queen" and "Little Miss Sunshine." The latter had enough runner-up notices to prove definitive critical support here, and so it's still pretty secure in that fifth Best Picture slot. "United 93" could feasibly come and knock it off its perch, but for now, the light and fluffy likely beats out the cold and unsentimental.

I correctly predicted eight of the group's twelve awards. Three of my remaining foour predictions showed up in the runners-up.

From here we go to the BFCA and HFPA nominations, he truest predictors of the Academy's tastes outside of the guilds.

The Oscar column will be up later this afternoon. Full list of NYFCC winners with commentary for each after the jump.

And so it begins...

National Board of Review names 'Iwo Jima' best film
First award in kudos race goes to Eastwood epic

By VARIETY STAFF

Clint Eastwood's "Letters From Iwo Jima" has won the National Board of Review's top prize, taking home the first award in the kudos race for 2006.

The top 10 from the National Board of Review:

"Letters From Iwo Jima"

"Babel"

"Blood Diamond"

"The Departed"

"The Devil Wears Prada"

"Flags Of Our Fathers"

"The History Boys"

"Little Miss Sunshine"

"Notes on a Scandal"

"The Painted Veil"

The rest of the awards:

Best Film: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Best Director: MARTIN SCORSESE, The Departed
Best Actor: FOREST WHITAKER, The Last King of Scotland
Best Actress: HELEN MIRREN, The Queen
Best Supporting Actor: DJIMON HOUNSOU, Blood Diamond
Best Supporting Actress: CATHERINE O'HARA, For Your Consideration
Best Foreign Film: VOLVER
Best Documentary: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Best Animated Feature: CARS
Best Ensemble Cast: THE DEPARTED
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: RYAN GOSLING, Half Nelson
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: (2)
JENNIFER HUDSON, Dreamgirls and RINKO KIKUCHI, Babel

Best Directorial Debut: JASON REITMAN, Thank You for Smoking
Best Original Screenplay: ZACH HELM, Stranger Than Fiction
Best Adapted Screenplay: RON NYSWANER, The Painted Veil

Top Five Foreign Films:
VOLVER

(and, in alphabetical order)

CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
DAYS OF GLORY
PAN'S LABYRINTH
WATER

Top Five Documentary Films
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

(and, in alphabetical order)

51 BIRCH STREET
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
SHUT UP & SING
WORDPLAY

Top Independent Films
(in alphabetical order)

AKEELAH AND THE BEE
BOBBY
CATCH A FIRE
COPYING BEETHOVEN
A GUIDE TO RECOGNIZING YOUR SAINTS
HALF NELSON
THE ILLUSIONIST
LONESOME JIM
SHERRYBABY
10 ITEMS OR LESS
THANK YOU FOR SMOKING

Career Achievement - ELI WALLACH
Billy Wilder Award for Excellence in Directing - JONATHAN DEMME
Career Achievement in Producing - IRWIN WINKLER
William K. Everson Film History Award - DONALD KRIM
The BVLGARI Award for NBR Freedom of Expression - WATER and WORLD TRADE CENTER

Now the question is this. Can "Flags of Our Fathers" and "Letters from Iwo Jima" both be nominated for Best Picture.

ITEMS OF NOTE REGARDING NBR 2006

In yesterday's Oscar column, I mentioned that "Little Miss Sunshine" directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Farris wouldn't have a shot at a nomination in the Best Director category due to both names being credited at the helm. This was an assumption on my part based in part on DGA strictures (recalling the hub-bu surrounding Robert Rodriguez, Frank Miller and "Sin City") and last year's disqualification of the "Batman Begins" score due to two credited composers.

Well it seems I was wrong in that assumption, and perhaps should have made a few quick and easy calls like New York Times columnist and blogger David Carr (a.k.a. "The Carpetbagger") did. It seems there is no rule that would keep both directors from grabbing a nomination, and, as quoted Academy spokesman Jon Pavlik points out, Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins were both nominated in 1961 for "West Side Story," eventually winning the award.

A big "oops" on my part and a big thanks to Mr. Carr for clearing that one up. A good thing all around regardless. "Little Miss Sunshine" is one of the best films of the year, and Dayton and Farris deserve they're due.

Searchlight's pushing Griffiths back into the lead category for his performance in "The History Boys" pretty much knocks him out of the race at this point. With Forest Whitaker and Peter O'Toole looking strong, and Jack Nicholson looking steady (should Warner Bros. stick with a lead decision...I expect they will), throw in George Clooney in a Best Picture contender, Leonardo DiCaprio in a duet of high profile flicks, Ryan Gosling in one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year...there's just not enough room. Given the role's large size, a supporting mention would have been a lot more likely for Griffiths in that weaker category. Ah well...I'm not in the business of Oscar campaigning - what do I know?

Tom O'Neil is claiming this as an exclusive, but the truth is most have been suspecting for some time that Richard Griffiths would go supporting for the reprisal of his Tony Award-winning role in "The History Boys." The role was shortened somewhat for the film version and so it was only a matter of time before something "official" happened. We've had Griffiths in our supporting charts for weeks now, and the only ambivalence about shoving him into the predicted five has been awaiting this very announcement. Well, we've got it now.

It looks like the ADG is following suit with a similar move made by the costumers last year.

The official press release:

LOS ANGELES, July 17 -- The Art Directors Guild has added a third category of competition for feature films in its annual Excellence in Production Design Awards by separating Period and Fantasy films that were previously linked together. The third feature category continues to be Contemporary. The addition, effective with this year's contest, was jointly announced today by ADG President Thomas A. Walsh and Awards Producers Tom Wilkins and Scott Meehan.

The other five categories of competition continue to be Single and Multiple Camera Television series; Television Movie or Mini-Series; Awards Show, Variety or Music Special or Documentary; and Commercials. In addition, the guild annually presents honorary awards for Lifetime Achievement and Cinematic Imagery. The 11th Annual Excellence in Production Design Awards will be presented Saturday, February 17, from the International Ballroom of the Beverly Hilton Hotel. Entry forms for television and commercials and overall rules and general awards information may be accessed on the ADG website: www.artdirectors.org.