January 12, 2007
BFCA Tonight

Starts any minute now. Not being televised but I thought I'd throw some thoughts out there (not speaking for Kris at all)...


PICTURE: "The Departed"
Their rating (only ranking eighth of their nominees) gives me hesitation but they almost always go for the Oscar frontrunner.


ACTOR: Forest Whitaker
I don't think this is as assured as many seem to think (not a BFCA-ish choice, exactly) but I don't think they'll be enough support for anyone else to trump him.


ACTRESS: Helen Mirren
A mortal lock.


SUPPORTING ACTOR: Eddie Murphy
Has the most precursor attention so they'll probably go for him. Jack wouldn't surprise me though.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Hudson
A near-certainty.


ACTING ENSEMBLE: "Little Miss Sunshine"
This could legimately go anywhere except maybe "Bobby" and "A Prairie Home Companion" but I think it's probably between this and "The Departed." That said, "Babel" could easily happen as well.


DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese
I'll be very surprised if he doesn't win.


WRITER: Peter Morgan - "The Queen"
This a tough one. I feel strong cases could be made for Monahan, Arndt and Arriaga as well. But they clearly liked "The Queen" given their rating for it.


ANIMATED FEATURE: "Happy Feet"
"Cars" has the higher rating but the more buzzed film almost always wins.


YOUNG ACTOR: Jaden Smith
Wouldn't that be cute?


YOUNG ACTRESS: Abigail Breslin
A lock.


COMEDY MOVIE: "Little Miss Sunshine"
Their only crossover to the Picture category.


FAMILY FILM (LIVE ACTION): "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
By far the biggest hit.


PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISiON: "Elizabeth I"
Helen is all the rage.


DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: "An Inconvenient Truth"
Extremely extremely likely.


FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM: "Letters from Iwo Jima"
Their only crossover with the Best Picture category.


SONG: "Listen"
As if they don't want to award Ms. Knowles?


SOUNDTRACK: "Dreamgirls"
99% assured.


COMPOSER: Gusatvo Santaoalla
The film they liked the best with the arguable exception of "The Departed" (which I can't see winning)

Comments

One more than me right. Nice.

Thanks.

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