Done gloating?

It's clearly not gloating. If you take it as such, you're looking too far into it.

It's valid concern for the group think that strangles Oscar races, year in and year out.

I always chuckle when people say they won't say "i told you so" because they are, in effect, saying it when they say they will no.

But, the race is really exciting now isn't it? What will win?!

Chuckle away, Camel. What's true is true.

Maybe you were the only guy who has an Oscar blog that said that, but I always believed The Departed would win best picture ever since it opened, and I have to strong reasons to believe it won't win. Little Miss Sunshine and Letters and The Queen have the ability of upsetting. But most people now believe The Departed is the frontrunner, and it can win in all 5 of its categories, easily in 4.

You're really too much, Kris. What else is someone to infer from your post here? It's clearly an example of you claiming to not make a statement and doing so in the process. What else are you doing if not slapping other awards enthusiasts on the hand ("It makes me sad that fellow journalists in this fraternity... fell into that trap from day one, some even stepping too far over the line in their 'sureness.'")? It absolutely reeks of condescension.

If you're going to bring attention to yourself, which you clearly are doing here, I'd rather you be upfront about it. Good for you in regards to calling out the film's disappointments early. But stop trying to step around the issue here.

It should reek of condescension. It isn't, in and of itself, an offensive gesture. You stray too far, you deserve to be called out on it.

But keep assuming...

Oh come on Kris. You made that assumption like every other person - just look at your regular "And the winners will be..." features for the last few months. What film is listed in the Best Picture slot? Even after you saw the film, you conceded that it was between it and "The Departed" for the big win.

Stop trying to pretend that you *knew* things would end up like this. 99.9% of people had "Dreamgirls" in their nomination predications, yourself included. You also felt a "Iwo Jima" shut-out was going to happen.

I never said I didn't think "Dreamgirls" would be nominated. You are now making things up and twisting the point.

That's not the point I'm making Kris - I'm just using that as an example. Basically, my issue is this: from reading your original post, you seem to be speaking from a lofty high and criticizing those who "from day one", as you say, predicted "Dreamgirls" as a lock for the win.

What I am saying is that you were not exempt from that group, even though you are framing it as such presently. Even after you articulated your dislike for the film, you still included it as a threat to take the big prize (see my earlier point.) That is, until you saw "Iwo Jima", and changed your tune.

"...from reading your original post, you seem to be speaking from a lofty high and criticizing those who "from day one", as you say, predicted "Dreamgirls" as a lock for the win."

That is exactly what I'm doing. But I recognize that no one likes a smart ass.

"What I am saying is that you were not exempt from that group, even though you are framing it as such presently. Even after you articulated your dislike for the film, you still included it as a threat to take the big prize (see my earlier point.)"

This is patently false. From the moment I saw "Dreamgirls," I did not consider in the likely winner ever again. Some even accused me of essentially stating "anything but 'Dreamgirls.'"

From my review, dated 11/24:

"With that in mind – and I don’t believe anyone has really said this in print yet – but I’m not sure “Dreamgirls” can be considered the frontrunner in the Best Picture race anymore. It is too thin, too distancing, too cold – and it doesn’t have the Miramax campaign power behind it that ushered the similarly criticized “Chicago” to greener Oscar pastures in 2002."

The only post-review "winners" entry I've posted in this blog, dated 12/5, had "Letters" as the predicted winner:

http://www.incontention.com/blog/2006/12/december_winner_predictions.html

After "Letters" began to seem like a lame-duck (and really...it remains a shocking occasion that it was nominated, but that's another conversation), I began to call the race for "Little Miss Sunshine." The "Dreamgirls" victory at the Globes put a cramp in this line of reasoning, however, but that is when the guilds began to shift in "Babel"'s favor and a win for Inarritu's film began to seem like the possibility.

But I have never called "Dreamgirls" a threa to win the big prize since before laying my eyes on the finished product.

Regardless, this isn't the conversation we should be having. The entire point of this post was to draw attention to a groupthink blunder. You are the one making this about me.

(And suddenly I sound like David Poland.)

But what I think Prophyle is saying is that you were part of that group think and while you may have thought that Dreamgirls wasn't much cop, you still thought it'd get nominated. And now that it didn't you sound like a lot of people (whether on blogs of their own or at places like the Hot Blog) who all immediately went "I knew it wouldn't get nominated."

Cause, no - nobody knew.

That's an extremely vacant interpretation of what I've written here, Camel. I'm not saying a lot of people are saying "I knew it wouldn't be nominated," nor do I know how you could possibly glean as much from my entry. I'm pointing to the LA Times article as the result of the rampant groupthink that "Dreamgirls" was "the one to beat" from the start.

Now you're misinterpreting what I'm saying. The "I knew it wouldn't be nominated" thing is my own thought (not twisting one yours) and is totally valid. People are coming out saying that (I'm not referring to professional oscar people, but just regular people who read the net) and it's sort of ridiculous, cause they really didn't.

Yeah, I should clarify, up in my first reply I wasn't saying YOU are one of those people saying it, but just that now there are people and it's silly cause they clearly didn't. I was then thinking that you couldn't have it both ways. You couldn't chastise the groupthink when even you didn't have the guts to not predict the Dreamgirls snub.

That's all.