I must say I admire Kris for getting out, every year, with his year-in-advance predictions the day after the Oscars. Hardly anything official from the studios has come out and there are so many variables surrounding films that might not even make it out. (I must say I admire Johnny Depp for halting production on "Sweeney Todd" to be with his sick daughter - but even so, it's creating a troubled shoot already.)

All things considered, I just can't say that I can form a set of predictions. Don't get me wrong - it's fun. It's just that every time I try, my mind begins to reel. (So whoever wins Nat's Actress prediction contest has my full-hearted admiration.)

Again, making a full set of predictions is something I don't have the energy for; by summer time, we tend to have somewhat of a better idea of what's to come. So I'm going to play things a little different by merely predicting the one nominee in each category I'm most confident about. These are not winner predictions, just those I'd rank as most likely to be nominated from this vantage point:
Picture: "Charlie Wilson's War" (though I have major reservations)
Director: Mike Nichols - "Charlie Wilson's War"
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - "There Will Be Blood"
Actress: Julie Christie - "Away from Her"
Supporting Actor: James McAvoy - "Atonement"
Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep (in something)
Original Screenplay: "Margot at the Wedding"
Adapted Screenplay: "Reservation Road"
Art Direction: "His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass"
Cinematography: "There Will Be Blood"
Costume Design: "The Other Boleyn Girl"
Film Editing: "Charlie Wilson's War"
Makeup: "Sweeney Todd"
Music - Original Score: "His Dark Materials: The Golden Compass"
Music - Original Song: ummm..."Enchanted"?
Sound Editing: "Spider-Man 3"
Sound Mixing: "Spider-Man 3"
Visual Effects: "Spider-Man 3"
Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Foreign-Language Film: "Lust, Caution"

Now watch three quarters of them not make it.