I'm just gonna throw some thoughts out there for everyone to mull on. I think there's a lot of stuff going on under the radar that's just gonna sneak up on us...
*For starters, let's talk about Amy Adams. Now, we'll probably know in a week or so how much of a shot she has, when the box office numbers come in and the reviews come out. For the time being, I think she's in the 5-10th position range. Now, "Enchanted" is prime Golden Globe material, and I'd be shocked if Adams didn't get nominated there at least. Here's something I feel like most people are forgetting: she's also in "Charlie Wilson's War," and she has a pretty great supporting role (she shares every scene she has with Hanks, for crying out loud). If "CWW" does turn out to be a big Oscar player, it's only going to strengthen Adam's push for her second nomination. "CWW" will start playing big around the same time the Globe noms start rolling out, and that might be all it takes for her to get into the top 5.
At the very least, I think we can expect/hope to see her and James Marsden performing at least one best original song nomination. I mean, how can AMPAS turn THAT up?
*Diablo Cody has Spielberg batting for her, thanks to "Tara" and everything. That could be key when it comes down to the win.
*We'd be foolish to forget all about "Grace is Gone". It's been laying pretty low under the radar for most of the season, which will probably prove to be a really smart move. With the big Eastwood push (score nom at least?), and an overdue and ready for comeback John Cusack, "Grace is Gone" could prove to not only be the "lighter" nom (by which I mean, the not-rated-R-with-buckets-of-blood fare), but also the Iraq/war film that actually does catch on with people everywhere, and AMPAS voters.
*"Persepolis" could be a big adapted screenplay contender. It could even break through in bigger ways than a lot of Animated films do. We could see it picking up multiple noms, animated, foreign, screenplay.
Again, this is all speculation. Just throwing it out there.