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December 24, 2007
Blanchett, Ryan, Swinton and...

...well? This seems to be shape of this category, with two very open spots.


Personally, I'm going with Keener and Ronan, barely over Dee and Redgrave, but I'm not confident. Ronan's in a big feature (but how big after the SAG snub?) and has BFCA and Globe nods, with BAFTA likely following suit. The SAG snub remains a major problem, however, given their love of child actors. Keener seems to be the solid old standby. My major hesitation with her would be a lack of passion for her performance, which I feel is more likely to exist for Dee and Redgrave.


As for Dee and Redgrave, the two could very well be nominated. Redgrave is a legend, with her best shot at a nomination since she was last nominated with virtually no precursor citations and a tiny role in "Howard's End." The BFCA nod and the impact she has at the film's end (think William Hurt) are major plusses in her corner. But her film seems on very shaky ground and her role remains tiny.


Dee, on the other hand, could have a career-capping nomination for a film that has been performing solidly, if not overwhelmingly, this year. But her role remains relatively small, her film's fate seems uncertain and the SAG nod is her only citation to date.


I still feel MacDonald could get in if "No Country" really goes over well - but the lack of any precursor citations whatsoever is disconcerting. The Globe nod for Roberts struck me as Globe star-fucking but if they want to welcome her back, she probably shouldn't be totally ruled out either.. And then there are the longshots such as Marisa Tomei and Jennifer Jason Leigh who could surprise in a very open year.


What say you?

Posted by Gerard Kennedy at 09:28 AM

Comments

Gerard,
I agree with most of what you said, but I think you've forgotten a major player--Jennifer Garner for "Juno."

Posted by: Scott Feinberg [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 24, 2007 11:14 AM

I really thought Kelly MacDonald would be a sure bet here, but it's disappointing she's missed out on the precursors. I feel like Leigh has no shot (people hate the film too much), and Tomei won't get in for her "I'm hot, and naked, but have no substantial role" bit.

I think Ronan is a lock for that fourth slot, and it's between Redgrave and MacDonald for the last one. For wishful thinking's sake, I'm going to go with the latter in my prediction.

Posted by: PanTheFaun [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 24, 2007 12:03 PM

I think Catherine Keener is in -- the SAG love for INTO THE WILD and her performance being mentioned there, and with the Actors Branch being the largest in the Academy membership, I think she stands the best shot to fill in one of the two slots. The second slot should go to Redgrave. While I didn't really care for Atonement - she was fantastic.

Posted by: elizlaw86 [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 24, 2007 04:49 PM

Why isn't Imelda Staunton nominated for from Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix???
She totally dominated the film as the evil but charming Dolores Umbridge.

Posted by: numberina [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 24, 2007 10:51 PM

I LOVE that, Pan. "...Tomei won't get in for her 'I'm hot, and naked, but have no substantial role' bit..." That's hysterical. So true. Except for the hot part IMO.

Posted by: Sherry [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 26, 2007 02:37 AM

I hope if Ryan Gosling gets nominated for Lars, maybe Emily Mortimer will sneak in, too. She deserves some recognition for that performance.

Posted by: BNick [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 26, 2007 07:37 AM

My guess is that Kelly MacDonald is in the same position Vera Farmiga was in last year. The only prominent female role in a male-heavy film. There as a chance of being nominated because of how well the film was received overall, but it didn't happen with The Departed. MacDonald's perf is a little quirkier and perhaps a little more memorable, but I'm just not seeing it. When there's many other options.

Posted by: lazarus [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 26, 2007 01:34 PM

I think Ronan and Dee will get it. Although I'd love them to throw a spanner in the works and nominate Sam Morton for Control.

Posted by: KamikazeCamelV2.0 [TypeKey Profile Page] | December 27, 2007 05:41 PM

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