Linked in today’s round-up is a piece from Nathaniel Rogers about the fact that there are simply no locks for Oscar in the earliest stages, certainly not for films that are still unseen. Though it wasn’t his point, it nevertheless got me thinking of two spats I got into last week with people who were flabbergasted at the idea of considering “War Horse” at the top of a list of Oscar guesses. “It hasn’t been seen!” No kidding. But the fact is, if you’re asking me to take wild stabs, I’ll take an unseen Steven Spielberg movie based on a hit play set during World War I over an Alexander Payne comedy that has played well at festivals — all day long. It’s like saying it’s silly in week one to bet on the Packers to make it to the Super Bowl because they play on Monday night and we haven’t seen what they’re made of, while the Lions killed in the early game on Sunday. Or something like that. It’s fair to bank it on pedigree because the fact is it’s all a bunch of nonsense guessing until voters — the people who matter in the equation — actually see the film, and that’s not usually until the holidays, anyway. So spare me the indignant, “But we haven’t seen it yet!” It’s okay if things change. Anyway, let’s see what’s going on in the Oscarweb today…

Nathaniel Rogers rattles off the ole’ “there are no locks” logic, which is of course bulletproof. [The Film Experience]

Tom O’Neil severs ties with the LA Times and goes out on his own once again with Gold Derby. [Awards Tracker]

Anne Thompson on the Oscar potential of Roman Polanski’s “Carnage.” [Thompson on Hollywood]

Steve Pond talks with “Moneyball” director Bennett Miller. [The Odds]

Gregg Kilday, meanwhile, wonders if the film can overcome baseball’s Oscar slump. [The Race]

Jeff Wells writes a love letter to Mexican foreign language submission “Miss Bala.” [Hollywood Elsewhere]

A.O. Scott and Manohla Dargis belly-ache the Oscar-ization of the fall festival circuit. [New York Times]

David Poland responds. [The Hot Blog]

Edward Davis decides to spoil Charlie Kaufman’s latest publicly. [The Playlist]

Drew McWeeny talks to “50/50” star Anna Kendrick. [Motion/Captured]