With this year’s Sundance Film Festival two days away, Tom Brueggemann observes that very few films in the lineup already have confirmed distribution deals — and thinks last year’s underperforming crop has something to do with it. While many recent breakout hits of previous fests have gone on to sleeper commercial success and/or Oscar glory, last year’s Sundance sensations have struggled: even with glowing reviews, despite landing powerful distributors, the likes of “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” “Like Crazy” and “Take Shelter” haven’t caught fire with audiences or awards voters thus far. As Brueggemann reports it, even the biggest commercial success from last year’s group, the Weinsteins’ “Our Idiot Brother,” was an underperformer. What gives? [Thompson on Hollywood]

Carey Mulligan, a BAFTA nominee this morning, talks “Shame” and seagull tattoos with Kira Cochrane. [The Guardian]

Michael Cieply talks to Baz Luhrmann about bringing 3D to the Jazz Age in “The Great Gatsby.” [New York Times]

I haven’t yet seen documentary Oscar hopeful “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory,” but this Matt Zoller Seitz piece on it makes me impatient to do so. [Vulture]

Glenn Whipp reviews how this year’s Globe winners enhanced their Oscar chances with their acceptance speeches: Streep, Clooney, Dujardin and Spencer all get the nod of approval. [Los Angeles Times]

Slighted by ASC, awarded by the BFCA and nominated by BAFTA, what do we make of “War Horse” DP Janusz Kaminski’s Oscar odds? He talks to Jack Egan. [Below the Line]

There are many things Roger Ebert is great at. Predicting the Oscars is not one of them. “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” and “Take Shelter” for Best Picture? Good luck, sir. [Chicago Sun-Times]

Elton John’s husband (and “Gnomeo and Juliet” producer) David Furnish is royally pissed off about Madonna’s Golden Globe win. I’d be more sympathetic if John’s song were any good. [THR]

Finally, there may have been disappointment for Potterphiles in this morning’s BAFTA nominations, but Daniel Radcliffe’s just thrilled Gary Oldman made the cut. [Metro]