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At Awards shows, there are winners. And there are losers. Or, at least, there are people who lose the awards to the winners.

Then there are losers, as in they cannot contain the indignity of their loss.

In cases like Lauren Bacall at the Oscars, we're practically bitter for her.

In cases like Justin Bieber winning a career achievement honor, we're bitter for… us. Because nobody really wins there, right?

Below we outline some of the most sad, bummed and bitter reactions to awards, from the Oscars and Golden Globes, to the Grammys and MTV VMAs. Who could forget the bitter reaction “I'mma let you finish,” which rang out across the world?

There is only one correct way to prepare for the Oscars: resentfully watching every bad, dubious, or weird movie starring this year's honorees and feeling smug about it. StreamFix is here to help. Here are five weird choices streaming on Netflix to get you caught up on some of the 2014 nominees.

“Chalet Girl” with Felicity Jones

Felicity Jones would have more of a chance at an Oscar if she just called herself “the other Carey Mulligan” and dealt with it. Anyway, remember “Chalet Girl”? It was about Felicity Jones and Ed Westwick enjoying wonderful times on the slopes. Let us consult The New York Times' review for some insight into this cinematic journey: “'Chalet Girl' may not be particularly creative or genre busting or even a great example of a romantic comedy. But its premise might make you smile.” I know I always go to the movies for the faint possibility of a smile, so look this one up now. Also: Can we look up Ed Westwick because I think he got lost somewhere in a 2011 smirking fit and hasn't been seen since.

“The House of the Spirits” with Meryl Streep

NEV-ER FOR-GET that Meryl Streep and Glenn Close once costarred in a movie together. And it was a magical movie. And psychic powers were involved. And Winona Ryder, Jeremy Irons, Vanessa Redgrave, Antonio Banderas, and William Hurt were there too. And that they all paled in comparison to the movie's true star, Teri Polo, who continues to cast spells on Meryl and Glenn to this very day.

“Frida” with Edward Norton

Truly, this movie is not that strange. It's mostly very good! Salma Hayek brings all the cast-iron integrity you want in good Kahlo cosplay. But it's like the entire world forgot that Edward Norton once played Nelson Rockefeller in this film. I love, love, love movies that cast a half-dozen random actors as glamorous historical figures. Remember that time we made Hugh Grant play Chopin in “Impromptu”? Or when Kathy Bates barked about good writing as Gertrude Stein in “Midnight in Paris”? This is one of those occasions! Also be sure to enjoy Geoffrey Rush has that old rapscallion Leon Trotsky.

“Bewitched” with Steve Carell

Ohhhhhh. This movie. I don't know how the idea of a real-life witch trying out for a remake of “Bewitched” became a real movie, but here we are. Somehow it goes underreported that Steve Carell played the role of Uncle Arthur in the in-movie remake. Fast-forward through Will Ferrell's endlessly repetitive tantrums to get to Carell throwing down some mad Paul Lynde snickering. (Stephen Colbert also appears as a production-side TV guy.)

“Labor Day” with JK Simmons

There was a time we thought Kate Winslet was infallible. Then, after she won an Oscar, that movie “Carnage” happened to her. What the hell was that? Roman Polanski telling four disinterested actors to yell “GRR!” at each other? I'm still processing it. Then last year “Labor Day” happened to Kate Winslet, proving that even the most talented actress can't amp up a total dud. But give it up for JK Simmons in one of his many minor roles as he faithfully serves up skills alongside Tobey Maguire, James Van Der Beek, and Clark Gregg.

The guilds, British Academy (BAFTA) and critics have all had their say. We're now four days from the 87th annual Academy Awards, so it's time to finally analyze the race for the wins. Most categories are fairly predictable, but there are some wildcards.

While I expect “The Grand Budapest Hotel” to take more than its share of craft categories, with “American Sniper” and possibly “Birdman” doing well, too, it's fair to say we won't be seeing a year like last year, where “Gravity” took six of 10 categories, and “The Great Gatsby” took two more.

More interesting is what I suspect will be a trend of repeat Oscar winners. I'm guessing the winners in most categories (Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects) will have already thanked the Academy before. While most of these winners would be deserving, several big names will still be waiting for their first statuettes. I'm hoping I'm wrong about some of this.

Let's consider…

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Emmanuel Lubezki undoubtedly came close to winning this category for “Children of Men” and “The Tree of Life.” Last year, he finally won an Oscar on his sixth nomination, for “Gravity.” It seems all but certain that he'll now win two statuettes in a row for his BFCA/BAFTA/ASC-triumphant lensing of “Birdman.” In addition to precursors, the fact is the film's photography is a tremendous part of its success and will live in film history.

Some day, Roger Deakins will win this category. He has to, right? And I'd say his epic lensing of “Unbroken” is second, if only because it is so epic. But it's a very distant second in a category where Lubezki is so far ahead. Dick Pope will have to be content with one of his Mike Leigh collaborations finally being recognized (“Mr. Turner”) while Robert Yeoman (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”) and the duo of Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski (“Ida”) should simply savor their first nominations.

Will Win: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Could Win: “Unbroken”
Should Win: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” (But I really, really want to see Deakins with a statue in his hands.)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The legendary Milena Canonero is far ahead in this category for creating the world of the “Grand Budapest.” (That purple is iconic.) Having won BAFTA, Costume Designers Guild and BFCA awards for this likely crafts category sweeper, I'm very confident Canonero will pick up statuette number four.

In a field consisting mostly of other past winners for films not as widely loved by AMPAS – Colleen Atwood (“Into the Woods”), Jacqueline Durran (“Mr. Turner”) and Mark Bridges (“Inherent Vice”) – her fourth win is unlikely to raise any eyebrows. Anna B. Sheppard (“Maleficent”) will remain the sole non-winner in the category but that cannot be surprising for a summer film with no other nominations.

Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Could Win: “Into the Woods”
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST FILM EDITING

Now here's an interesting race – one of a few crafts categories that seems genuinely open. (The absence of BFCA winner “Birdman” from the final five will undoubtedly draw “Brokeback Mountain” comparisons if the film does not win the top prize.)

One would think Sandra Adair would be best-poised to win this category for the other major Best Picture contender, “Boyhood”. She did win the ACE Eddie drama award (the film's sole guild prize outside of Patricia Arquette's SAG win) and one has to admire her 12-year effort. But while I think Adair will win, cases could be made for other contenders.

Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach put together notable suspenseful war movie elements in “American Sniper,” a late breaker on the scene. A triumph here is possible and could be a sign of major upsets coming in Best Picture or Best Actor. Even more likely, in my opinion, “Whiplash” could pull a “Traffic” and win every non-Best Picture award for which it is nominated. This was an editing showcase and won the BAFTA.

Barney Pilling, despite an ACE Eddie win and setting a crisp pace, will likely need to be satisfied with his nomination for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” William Goldenberg seems least likely given that “The Imitation Game” appears to have stalled.

Will Win: “Boyhood”
Could Win: “Whiplash”
Should Win: “Whiplash”

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

So I realize creating monsters on a major blockbuster is a classic way to win here, so “Guardians of the Galaxy” has to be considered. And, yes, transforming a famous actor to make him unrecognizable can be a force to be reckoned with in this category, so let's not totally rule out “Foxcatcher.”

But, really, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is a design showcase, with period work, aging, birthmarks and tattoos to demonstrate the multi-faceted achievements of the makeup artists. When you also consider that it's won the BFCA and the BAFTA, and is the sole Best Picture nominee among the final three, its path to victory seems all but assured.

Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Could Win: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
 
One of the trickier crafts categories to predict this year is Best Original Score. Jóhann Jóhannsson won the Globe for his soaring “Theory of Everything” score, while Alexandre Desplat has won the BAFTA (and the Grammy!) for his joyous compositions for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Either could win the Oscar, but I'm giving the edge to Jóhannsson given the uniqueness of his score, the fact that first-time nominees frequently win when nominated, and that Desplat could encounter some vote-splitting problems, also being nominated for “The Imitation Game.” (Though it should be noted, composer names aren't listed on the ballot, so this might not be a significant concern.)

Gary Yershon should be content having earned an inspired and surprising nomination for “Mr. Turner,” while Hans Zimmer feels like he's just along for the ride for “Interstellar.”

Will Win: “The Theory of Everything”
Could Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

Enough has been written about “Selma” only earning nominations for Best Picture and Best Song. If it's any consolation, it now seems highly likely to win this category, for John Legend and Common's appropriate end credits song, which already has BFCA and Golden Globe wins to its credit.

All four other nominees are the sole nominees from their films. But that is not necessarily a death blow in this category. They all have something going for them – “Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights” has legend Dianne Warren's push, “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again” is a hugely popular entry, “I'm Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I'll Be Me” has enormous sentiment behind it, and “Everything is Awesome” from “The LEGO Movie” has bubblegum appeal and a prominent place in its film.

How will this work out in the wash? I, for one, doubt any of them will be able to emerge as a clear challenge to “Glory.”

Will Win: “Glory” from “Selma”
Could Win: “Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Should Win: “I'm Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I'll Be Me”

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Even when it wasn't clear that “The Grand Budapest Hotel” was going to be a nominations sweeper, its production design always seemed the logical place to award the movie. Now, Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock seem highly likely to win well-deserved first Oscars for what can only be described as creating a title character. Surely the first time a Wes Anderson movie wins Oscars, Best Production Design needs to be among them?

Maria Djurkovic's first nomination for “The Imitation Game” is likely a distant second. “Interstellar,” “Into the Woods” and “Mr. Turner” are all worthy nominees, but I cannot see them beating “Grand Budapest” in the discipline that is perhaps the quintessential trademark of Wes Anderson films.

Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Could Win: “The Imitation Game”
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

BEST SOUND EDITING

Regardless of what happens in Sound Mixing, I fully expect Bub Asman and Robert Alan Murray to triumph in this category for “American Sniper.” It's the obvious place to award the Eastwood effort and I'm sure the Academy will admire this creation of Iraq War chaos. It had a good showing at the MPSE Awards (but then again, so did “Birdman” and “Unbroken” due to the multiple categories).

“Birdman” is likely in second given that it's a potential Best Picture winner and it has a fighting chance to take the Sound Mixing statuette – but are the sound effects really what people are going to most remember from this film? “Unbroken” is clearly in second among the war movies, “Interstellar” doesn't make sense as a winner of anything other than Visual Effects, and even though “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” would have my vote, it's clearly just along for the ride.

Will Win: “American Sniper”
Could Win: “Birdman or (“The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Should Win: “The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies”

BEST SOUND MIXING

I would love to see “Whiplash” repeat its BAFTA win here. The sound builds the mood and complements what we see on screen to an extent done in no other film this year. Ultimately, however, the fact that it was not even nominated for the Cinema Audio Society award gives me pause. Moreover, “American Sniper” just seems like a likelier winner, given that it is a war film with enormous box office behind it, and is a dark horse to win the top prize. And it would be nice to see Eastwood's longtime production sound mixer Walt Martin win a posthumous statuette.
 
“Birdman's” Society triumph means it is also in contention, especially if it sweeps (think “Slumdog Millionaire”). “Interstellar's” nomination is quite something given the criticism leveled at it, but even putting that aside, I cannot see it having enough going for it to win this category. Ditto for “Unbroken,” which is clearly secondary in terms of war films (behind “American Sniper”) and Frank Montaño/Jon Taylor films (behind “Birdman”).

Will Win: “American Sniper”
Could Win: “Whiplash”
Should Win: “Whiplash”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Three years ago, “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” seemed poised to win this category for revolutionizing the art form. It didn't seem right to me so I observed two facts that still hold true to this day:

1. A non-Best Picture nominee has not triumphed over a Best Picture nominee in this category since 1970, when “Tora! Tora! Tora!” beat “Patton”; and

2. A film hasn't won this category without a single other nomination since 1992, when “Death Becomes Her” beat “Batman Returns.”

Fortunately for “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes,” which won the BFCA award and netted more than its share of Visual Effects Society wins, there is no Best Picture nominee in the field this year. But it remains a lone nominee, and the work, though amazing, is no longer as novel as it was on its predecessor (even if it is quite advanced from that point).

“Interstellar” is clearly respected by the Academy in some areas, having earned five nominations (even for its derided sound mixing). With a BAFTA win to its credit and as many total nominations as the other four nominees combined, Nolan's film has to be considered the favorite this year. I hope I'm wrong.

“Guardians of the Galaxy” is a clearly beloved romp that has dark horse potential. While “X-Men: Days of Future Past” and “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” are deserving nominees, earning their franchises their first Oscar nominations (outside of “The Avengers”), they're going to have to be content with the nominations given the competition.

Will Win: “Interstellar”
Could Win: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
Should Win: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”

And that's all folks. Tune in Monday for the postmortem and click through to the next page if you're interested in my predictions in other categories.

Enjoy Oscar night!

GERARD KENNEDY'S PREDICTIONS IN ALL CATEGORIES

Best Picture
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Best Director
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Best Actress
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

Best Supporting Actor
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Imitation Game”

Best Original Screenplay
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Best Cinematography
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

Best Costume Design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Best Film Editing
“Boyhood”

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Best Music (Original Score)
“The Theory of Everything”

Best Music (Original Song)
“Glory” from “Selma”

Best Production Design
“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

Best Sound Editing
“American Sniper”

Best Sound Mixing
“American Sniper”

Best Visual Effects
“Interstellar”

Best Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon 2”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ida”

Best Documentary Feature
“CITIZENFOUR”

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”

Best Short Film (Animated)
“The Bigger Picture”

Best Short Film (Live Action)
“The Phone Call”

We weren't kidding back in December when we wrote about how this year's Best Actor pool may have been the greatest ever. Two months later, and we seemingly have the tightest race in this category in at least 12 years. And let's put an emphasis on “seemingly.”  

From a pundit, industry and Oscar fan perspective, it appears as though three of the five nominees have a legitimate shot to celebrate on Oscar Sunday. First up is “The Theory of Everything's” Eddie Redmayne. The 33-year-old Brit has already won a Golden Globe, a Screen Actors Guild Award and, as expected, the BAFTA Award in this category for his incredible portrayal of Stephen Hawking in the popular biopic.  

Redmayne's main competition for most of awards season has been “Birdman's” Michael Keaton. The veteran actor was the apple of critics groups' eyes, earning honors from the National Board of Review and, by our count, 20 other organizations. He took home the Globe for Best Actor – Musical or Comedy and managed two Best Actor honors from the Critics' Choice Awards. While he lost at the SAG Awards, “Birdman” did win Best Ensemble. That means you could easily make a case that there is support for the movie and his performance within the actors branch. Because of his long and legendary career, Keaton arguably knows more Academy members than his competitors and is seen as an icon for the lasting impact of his earlier work. Is there a faction of the membership that wants to give him an Oscar so he can finally join the club? You bet there is.

Once their respective films had screened in September it confirmed what many had foreseen in the summer, a race between Redmanye and Keaton for the win with “The Imitation Game's” Benedict Cumberbatch being a potential party crasher.  What wasn't necessarily foreseen was the wild card entry of “American Sniper's” Bradley Cooper. “Sniper” debuted somewhat late in the season and that contributed to the actor finding himself out of the SAG race (he'd been nominated three times previously) and not earning yet another Golden Globe nod (he'd been nominated for his last two films).

On Oscar nomination day, however, Cooper was riding some high profile support and “Sniper's” incredible box office to effectively knock “Nightcrawler's” Jake Gyllenhaal or “Selma's” David Oyelowo (take your pick) out of the final five. In the weeks since, the R-rated “Sniper” has crossed the $300 million mark and many believe a Cooper win could be how the Academy collectively rewards the film. The 40-year-old is also nominated for the third year in a row. The last time that rare feat happened? 2004 when Renee Zellweger won Best Supporting Actress for “Cold Mountain.”

Momentum is a powerful thing in Oscar land. Just ask Adrien Brody, who won this category facing stiff competition from Jack Nicholson (“About Schmidt”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”) and Nicholas Cage (“Adaptation”). The big difference between Brody and Cooper, however, is that the former had earned SAG and BAFTA nods, the latter did not. So is Cooper's perceived ascension more a case of wishful thinking from the media? Is it really still coming down to a “pick 'em” between Redmayne and Keaton?

It's important to note that Redmayne, Keaton and fellow nominee Steve Carell (“Foxcatcher”) have been working the circuit, literally, for months. You name an awards season event and they have probably been there. Cooper has been in the mix more recently, but considering how much he's played the game the past two seasons, he didn't hesitate to jump into the fray. The fact that Cumberbatch was barely able to campaign due to his work schedule is an example of how a potential winner can become an also-ran in a competitive season. (Nope, it's not always about the quality of the work itself, unfortunately.)

And yet, history may be on Redmayne's side. Statistically, only twice has an actor won both SAG and BAFTA Best Actor awards and lost the Oscar over the 21 year history of the SAGs. Hollywood also loves transformational roles, from Daniel Day-Lewis in “My Left Foot” to Jamie Foxx in “Ray” and Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club” this past year. And, as silly as this sounds, have we mentioned how Redmayne has wonderfully charmed voters from New York to Los Angeles and back again? This is an incredibly tough race to call and anything may happen on Oscar night, but it's hard to bet against Redmayne at this point.

That doesn't mean we won't be on the edge of our seats as that envelope is opened, however.

Biggest campaign moment: While you might think it was Cooper crashing the Oscar nomination party, it was actually Carell's inclusion that was more of a surprise. After receiving a supporting nomination from BAFTA, it seemed like he might be in danger of diluting his votes, while the early guild results had many believing “Foxcatcher” was not adored by the industry (eventually evidenced by missing a Best Picture nomination). Ultimately, the strength of his transformative performance (a theme, perhaps?) pushed him through in a competitive field.

Should have been here: Where do we start? “Nightcrawler's” Gyllenhaal, “Selma's” Oyelowo, “Mr. Turner's” Cannes winner Timothy Spall, “A Most Violent Year's” Oscar Isaac, “Unbroken's” Jack O'Connell and “Interstellar's” Matthew McConaughey would all have been worth nominees, and you could easily argue that Gyllenhaal or Oyelowo could have won.

Who will win: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
Who should win: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”

One of the bigger surprises for many (ahem, not all) people when the Oscar nominations were announced was the inclusion of a little Polish indie called “Ida” in the Best Cinematography category. But the story of how the film came to feature two DPs – Ryszard Lenczewski  and Lukasz Zal – is an interesting one itself.

Unfortunately, Lenczewski has been unavailable lately, but I wrangled up an email chat with Zal about his good fortune. (That's him on the right next to director Pawel Pawlikowski in the photo at the top.) And it's double the excitement for him, too, as he shot the Oscar-nominated documentary short “Joanna” as well. The Polish Film School is taking over! Seriously, though, it was a truly unexpected moment for Zal, of course, to land an Oscar nomination for his feature debut, particularly after the unusual circumstances that led to his assuming the role of cinematographer.

What's more, this rounds out a fairly substantial year of DP conversations for us here at In Contention. I delight in these so much and am so happy they tend to find an audience. I hope you continue to enjoy them as we move forward.

Check out the back and forth with Zal below.

***

HitFix: What was it like collaborating as dual cinematographers on a project? How did you divide duties or work hand-in-hand?

Lukasz Zal: The fact that there were two DPs working on “Ida” was a coincidence. I was supposed to be a camera operator, Ryszard Lenczewski was to be the DP. He took part in the recces [pre-production location work], prepared everything but his health prevented him from continuing his work. During the very first days, we worked alternately; Ryszard was the DP for 10 days all in all. Everything happened unexpectedly. I was promoted to DP on the second day. After a few days, Ryszard returned to work and I became the camera operator again. Then, he couldn't work again and once more I took over and worked with director Pawel Pawlikowski. I used Ryszard's photos, taken during the recces, to get an idea about locations. I had no time for additional recces or preparations. It became obvious really quickly that Pawel and I got along very well, that the work we had done during those first couple of days turned out great and that was when Pawel and the producer decided to give me a chance. The situation was a bit crazy. I arrived to the set not really knowing if I'd be a DP or a camera operator that day. All I could do, really, was to concentrate and be creative. Later on we had more time to plan, discuss the scenes we were about to shoot and “fantasize,” as Pawel liked to put it.

Was digital always part of the plan or did you at any point consider film? What did you find beneficial about digital with this particular project, and at the same time, what limitations did it place on you?

The decision that the movie was to be shot on Alexa was made much earlier. It was Ryszard's idea. There were many reasons for choosing that particular camera, the most important one being that Alexa's transducer gives picture that is the most similar to the one shot on the traditional stock. The black and white stock available today is imperfect and the whole process is very expensive. Working on a digital camera gives much bigger comfort, like the possibility to shoot many retakes, which is very important while working with an actress who's making her onscreen debut (Agata Trzebuchowska). Not to mention the financial matters. The final result is comparable to the traditional stock but it's much easier to achieve. I, personally, do not see any limitations.

The look of the film is obviously very stark, maybe even austere. What inspired that? Did you reference art work or photography or other films at all?

The style of picture is partly inspired by the films of the Polish Film School. As far as photography is concerned, I would mention Jeanloup Sieff and his black and white photos. We drew our inspiration from the movie entitled “Vivre Sa Vie.” We found the formal decisions made in this movie very bold and incredible. We wanted the movie to be as coarse as possible, deprived of all the visual ornaments, to make it look as if it was shot in the '60s. And I think we managed that. During one of the first showings of the movie, in the post-production studio, someone saw parts of “Ida” and was wondering out loud how was it possible that Agata Kulesza was playing in such an old movie.

There's also a careful geometry, I want to say, to the film's composition. What inspired that and what was that element of the film's look meant to convey thematically?

This particular way of framing was used for the first time while we were shooting the scene at the bus station. We were looking for the feeling of misplacement and isolation and it turned out that so much air creates an incredible mood. We kept using it in the following takes and we were able to see that something unique and interesting is coming out of it. We were very shy at first but grew bolder as we went on. We were building our frames from the scraps of reality with great precision, like posters. We set each frame together, Pawel and I. Pawel has a great sense of pictures.

A lot of people were pleasantly surprised that you got an Oscar nomination. How did it feel for you guys?

I was equally surprised. I didn't expect it at all. I was doing the pre-production for my new film and it was a last minute decision to go and watch the nominations at the Polish Film Institute. Emotions were running high. Firstly, because of “Ida” being nominated for the Best Foreign Language Film. Secondly, the nomination for the documentary entitled “Joanna,” on which I worked as a cinematographer. Not to mention, the nomination for the cinematography for “Ida.” It was incredible and very exciting. I didn't expect to get a nomination for the movie that was my debut. The fact that I could work on the cinematography for that film is the biggest reward for me.

“Boogie Nights.” “The End of the Affair.” “The Hours.” “Far from Heaven.” And those were just the four times Julianne Moore found herself in the race. “Safe.” “The Big Lebowski.” “Magnolia.” “The Shipping News.” “Children of Men.” “A Single Man.” “Maps to the Stars.” She's been turning out great work for years and now, finally, it looks like she's going to be an Oscar winner.

You can debate whether her work outshines the film “Still Alice,” and whether the category needed to be as generally weak as it is this year for her to finally get there. But why pick it to pieces? Every year is different, every set of circumstances is unique, and the stars are finally aligning for her. Embrace it. And by the way, she's pretty outstanding in the film, breaking your heart as a woman succumbing to early on-set Alzheimer's disease. Whoever picked this film up out of Toronto (it ended up being Sony Pictures Classics) was going to coast to a win, and so here we are with the single lockiest lock of Oscar night.

I'm sure Marion Cotillard, Felicity Jones, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon will be happy to stay seated and watch a legend take the stage, but their work made for a collectively robust category, despite the perennial griping that it was a thin field. Cotillard was the surprise inclusion for “Two Days, One Night,” a critical darling who was able to sling-shot past heavy campaigning from Jennifer Aniston to find a spot. Witherspoon might have been the frontrunner for “Wild” had Moore not entered the race, and she's quite affecting as a woman hitting the trail to find herself again. Pike ended up being the lone representative for “Gone Girl,” her unhinged portrayal a sure-thing from the get-go. And Jones was smartly campaigned as a lead (well, she is one) opposite Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything,” an emotional anchor for a film that doesn't eschews some of the usual biopic flourishes to focus on a troubled romance.

But in the end, it's Moore's time. And surely no one wants to take it from her. It will be a lovely highlight, finally.

Biggest campaign moment: The aforementioned acquisition of “Still Alice” out of the Toronto Film Festival. The category was yearning for a substantial frontrunner, not unlike when Jeff Bridges crashed the Best Actor party in 2009.

Should have been here: For starters, it would have been nice to see the single greatest lead actress performance of the year land a nomination – Gugu Mbatha-Raw in “Beyond the Lights.” And while “Mommy's” qualifying run for nominations outside of foreign film was more or less invisible, it happened, so Anne Dorval would have been nice, too.

Will win: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Should win: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”

The final American film industry group has spoken in the run-up to the 87th Oscars, with “Birdman,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Into the Woods” taking top honors from the Costume Designers Guild. “True Detective,” “Game of Thrones” and “American Horror Story: Freak Show” were victors in the TV ranks.

This latest notch on the belt is “Birdman's” eight industry award to go along with honors from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, American Society of Cinematographers, Art Directors Guild, Cinema Audio Society and Motion Picture Sound Editors. That's a pretty dominant showing, yet the Best Picture race is still perceived as a close one.

As for the costume design race itself, it seems like an easy get for Milena Canonero, whose “Grand Budapest” work could well bring her her fourth Oscar to date. If not her then certainly Colleen Atwood, a winner Tuesday night for “Into the Woods” also looking for her fourth Oscar.

For now, the lid is closed on the significant precursors.

Check out the full list of CDG winners below, nominations here, and the rest of what brought us to this point at The Circuit.

FILM

Excellence in Contemporary Film
“Birdman” (Albert Wolsky)

Excellence in Period Film
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” (Milena Canonero)

Excellence in Fantasy Film
“Into the Woods” (Colleen Atwood)

TELEVISION

Outstanding Contemporary Television Series
“True Detective” (Jenny Eagan)

Outstanding Period/Fantasy Television Series
“Game of Thrones” (Michele Clapton)

Outstanding Made for Television Movie or Mini Series
“American Horror Story: Freak Show” (Lou Eyrich)

Excellence in Commercial Costume Design
Army – 'Defy Expectations, Villagers' (Christopher Lawrence)

This year's Best Supporting Actress race has pretty much been settled since the equivalent honor was handed out at the BAFTA Awards earlier this month, but indulge as we pay tribute to some of the other nominees will you?

In any other year Emma Stone might be Oscar night's upset special. A talented ingenue who has delighted audiences and the industry for a number of years with great roles in “The Help,” “Superbad” and “Easy A,” she's the sort of contender the Academy usually wants to anoint on Oscar night. In “Birdman” she gives an underrated turn (yes, we realize that it sounds ridiculous to call an Academy Award nominee “underrated”) as a daughter who sill hasn't figured herself out, but has enough street smarts to realize her father may be in a very strange place. If there is any sort of upset Sunday night, Stone would be a part of it. But she'll likely take home her first statue a number of years down the road.

Keira Knightley is now a two-time nominee who gives a very strong performance in “The Imitation Game.” She's had a remarkable run of quality performances lately (like everyone else, we're going to forget about “Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit”), which has silenced her often vocal haters club. At this rate, in a few years, she'll be a central figure in the always popular “Why haven't they won an Academy Award yet?” pieces.

Considering her impressive resume it's sort of shocking Laura Dern is only now earning her second Oscar nomination. Dern's nod is major recognition for her work in Jean-Marc Vallée's drama “Wild,” a film that has a quiet, but significant fan base. Here's hoping it doesn't take her another 23 years to get back in Oscar's good graces for nomination number three.

Meryl freaking Streep. Back at the Dolby Theater for “Into the Woods” and breaking her own record with an incredible 19th nomination. It's probably too soon for her to win Oscar number four, but at this point, is reaching 25 nominations simply inevitable?

And lastly, our winner, Patricia Arquette. The “Boyhood” star spent 12 years playing young Mason's mom and eventually became the soul of Richard Linklater's beloved achievement. She's taken every major award she's been up for including the Globe, the Critics' Choice, SAG, BAFTA and she'll win the Independent Spirit Award on Saturday, too. Is it a lock? Yep, it pretty much is. 

Biggest campaign moment: Arquette winning LAFCA's Best Actress prize and NYFCC's Best Supporting Actress honor gave a legitimacy to her campaign that solidified her frontrunner status. Everyone else has been playing catch up (if they haven't given up) since.

Should have been there: The idea that Academy members would not watch the screener of “A Most Violent Year” because of the film's title, therefore robbing Jessica Chastain not only of a nomination, but possibly winning, is beyond me. “Nightcrawler's” Rene Russo, “Gone Girl's” Carrie Coon, “Inherent Vice's” Katherine Waterston and “Snowpiercer's” Tilda Swinton were all equally deserving of making the cut.

Will win: Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
Should win: Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”

It's 5pm on the west coast, meaning it's pencils down for Academy voters. Polls are now closed for the upcoming 87th Oscars, and now, we wait. But in the meantime, let's consider a few of the closer races that could make for some considerable drama on Sunday night.

Best Picture and Best Director
This goes without saying, but “Birdman” and “Boyhood” are still at each other's throats in the final lap. “Birdman” won most of the guilds, “Boyhood” won the BAFTA prize. And predictions run the gamut. Some are calling “Birdman” for both, others are calling “Boyhood” for both. Some predict “Birdman” for Best Picture and “Boyhood” for Best Director, others vice versa. If you're anticipating a split, but you're unsure which way to go, it's probably safer to pick one film for both and cross your fingers.

Best Actor
Yeah, Eddie Redmayne has dominated the circuit, winning the Golden Globe for drama, the Screen Actors Guild Award and the BAFTA prize. But here's the thing: He wasn't competing with “American Sniper's” Bradley Cooper at any of those shows. That means we have a wild card here, and it could play itself out in a number of ways. For starters, Cooper could be a bit of a Ralph Nader in the group, siphoning votes off of Redmayne and allowing for “Birdman's” Michael Keaton to get a second wind. Or he could just as easily be pulling from Keaton. (Frankly, it's probably a bit of both.) What's more, Cooper may have caught a big enough stride as “Sniper” blew up at the box office, rounding up enough votes to spoil it for everyone. Don't go thinking this one's locked up just yet.

Best Writing (Adapted and Original Screenplay)
Like Cooper in Best Actor, “Whiplash” is a wild card in Best Adapted Screenplay. The film has competed in the original category elsewhere all season long, and it has consistently lost to the likes of “Birdman,” “Boyhood” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” That's no surprise, really, given that those are the three frontrunners overall, but now Damien Chazelle's popular indie faces softer competition because the Academy deemed it an adapted screenplay instead. As a result, it sort of stands out among Academy favorites in the category as unique. So “The Imitation Game” may feel like a good bet after winning prizes like the USC Scripter Award and the WGA honor, but the fact is it hasn't had to face off against “Whiplash” yet. So we just can't know. Meanwhile, that aforementioned original field still has that trio of frontrunners duking it out. While “The Grand Budapest Hotel” feels right (BAFTA, WGA), it could easily go to one of the two films that seem to be squaring off for Best Picture.

Best Music (Original Score)
“The Theory of Everything” won the Golden Globe.* But “The Grand Budapest Hotel” won the BAFTA prize and a Grammy. “Interstellar” is a wonderful achievement that could pull some votes from people looking to support it. And “The Imitation Game” is more of a spoiler than people might think. Really, only “Mr. Turner” feels like a safe dismissal here.

*If you need something like a stat to help guide your way (I know you're out there), how's this: Only 11 times in the Golden Globes' 70-plus year history has an Oscar-nominated score won the HFPA prize but lost the Oscar. Six of those were in the '60s alone and it's only happened once in the last 24 years. But here, let me complicate it even more. While the BAFTA lineage only goes back to 1968, twice has their choice mitigated the HFPA decision and turned out to be the Academy's pick as well. So, further to the point: It's pretty much a pick 'em.

Best Sound Mixing
On the one hand, it seems like the obvious call to chalk up “American Sniper” for both sound categories. But “Whiplash” won the BAFTA prize and “Birdman” won the Cinema Audio Society award, so support is divided. It's possible the two fields split. It's possible the two go to presumed favorite overall, “Birdman.” It's even possible “Unbroken” finds some love. But while “Sniper” feels like the good bet in Best Sound Editing, the mixing field is the one that could go a different direction.

Best Visual Effects
A conundrum. The visual effects community would obviously see this prize go to “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.” But BAFTA winner “Interstellar” is a prestige film and the one in the category with the most nominations overall. “Guardians of the Galaxy,” meanwhile, is a popular film that people may want to vote for here if nowhere else. It really just depends on how far out onto that limb you want to climb, ultimately.

And frankly, we could probably write about a number of the others for various reasons. But we'll stop there. It's going to be an interesting ceremony, to say the least.

What are you picking in these close categories? Have your say in the comments section below.

As Oscar season winds down and several major categories boil down to shoo-in victories, it seems salient to ask whether the tastes of the average American moviegoer dovetail with Academy consensus.

The answer? Almost never. And that's not a bad thing.

The heartening thing about domestic 2014 box office returns is that most of the biggest successes — minus “Transformers: Age of Extinction” of course — are also critical smashes. Not all of those critical smashes are battling in the most prestigious Oscar categories, but many of them netted multiple nominations. To settle the sometimes hostile rift between audiences and critics, we're proposing what the Oscar handout would look like in ten major categories if the average (but somewhat discerning) moviegoer were given the deciding vote. 

Though this means great, lesser-seen movies like “Whiplash” and “Boyhood” miss out, it also mean some of the cooler performances from blockbusters get a chance to earn much-deserved kudos. Join us for our democratized, suburban multiplex-friendly Oscars. 

For a long stretch of the season – arguably going as far back as the 2014 Sundance Film Festival over a year ago – the Best Supporting Actor race has felt like it had a true frontrunner. And with less than a week to go before the Oscars put a bow on everything, that still appears to be the case.

And who doesn't want to see J.K. Simmons clutching an Oscar, really? I feel like I've written this sentiment countless times this season, but once more for good measure: he's been an in-the-trenches working actor for years. He's a great guy, he has a great story and – oh yeah – he's amazing in “Whiplash.” He makes the movie sing. Without this performance – and with due respect to the talented Damien Chazelle who no matter what would have cranked out a fascinating picture – I'm not so sure it would have been the critical and awards success that it's been.

It's not to say there aren't amazing performances elsewhere in the category. Edward Norton is brilliant and hilarious in “Birdman.” Robert Duvall reminds you why he's one of the best, coming away from the critically dismantled “The Judge” unscathed. Ethan Hawke might have quietly offered up his finest, most present work to date in “Boyhood.” And Mark Ruffalo may have topped his previous work as well with his “Foxcatcher” performance.

But the movement has been behind Simmons from the start. Don't expect any change of heart this late in the game. The only question that remains is how much the Academy might want to reward “Whiplash” otherwise. The screenplay? The editing? The sound mix? All are on the table.

Biggest campaign moment: This quintet has been locked in for so long it's hard to really pinpoint if there actually was one. So we'll just say the revelation of the Screen Actors Guild nominations, which firmed up this group early on.

Should have been here: Riz Ahmed's nervous nelly working alongside Jake Gyllenhaal in “Nightcrawler” would have been inspired, as would recognition for the late Gary Poulter, an undeniable presence in David Gordon Green's “Joe.”

Will win: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
Should win: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash” (but I really liked Norton and Ruffalo, too – tough call)

If you thought the awards season was going to end Sunday, BOY WERE YOU WRONG. Lest you forget, the MTV Movie Awards always comes along and bats clean-up with nominations not long after the Oscars and an awards show in April. Amy Schumer has been tapped to host the proceedings and they've already started the roll-out of ads pimping the upcoming show.

First, there was this bit with Schumer and Anna Kendrick, which was hilarious. And today, it's Schumer and “Saturday Night Live” alum Bill Hader trashing a theater because winning IS everything, dammit.

Speaking of this, what can we expect to be nominated. (And lighten up, Francis. “Who cares about the MTV Movie Awards has been uttered a million times before you came around to it.) I would imagine “The Hunger Games” will have its usual spot. “Guardians of the Galaxy” is a shoo-in. Probably “American Sniper,” too. Would “Boyhood” compute for this group? It's a virtual timeline of the demographic, after all. We'll see.

For now, check out the Schumer/Hader spot below.

The 24th annual MTV Movie Awards will be held on April 12.

http://players.brightcove.net/4838167533001/BkZprOmV_default/index.html?videoId=4910172557001

If you would have told someone in The Academy's Music Branch that the Best Original Song category would be a battle for Oscar redemption this year, you may have been met with a, “Come again?” Yes, the Academy Awards can't seem to get through a season without snubbing contenders the public, media and even Academy members are embarrassed over. This year, two films have been the center of particular vitriol: “The LEGO Movie” and “Selma.” But one of them may find some small silver lining in the original song category.

Twitter seemed to be on the verge of meltdown the morning of the 87 Academy Awards nominations announcement. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's critically acclaimed blockbuster “The LEGO Movie” was shockingly not included in the Best Animated Feature Film category. This after winning numerous critics' groups honors and earning key guild nominations (many of which it eventually won). The only nomination it received was for the song “Everything is Awesome,” written by Shawn Patterson and performed by Tegan and Sara ft. The Lonely Island. You know, the song you couldn't get out of your head for weeks after seeing the movie? Yeah, that one.

“Selma,” on the other hand, landed a prestigious Best Picture nod, but was snubbed in Directing, Lead Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes and Editing (and you could argue for more). This led to a pretty significant backlash including an #OscarsSoWhite hashtag that was trending online for days and significant babble from cable news talking heads. The movie did, however, earn an Original Song nod for “Glory,” written and performed by John Legend and Common. While “Selma” is a huge longshot for Best Picture (Paramount effectively did not spend in phase two for the movie), it, like “LEGO,” could find redemption in this category.

Of course, the rest of the competition isn't too shabby. There is an emotional story behind “I'm Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I'll Be Me,” although we're doubtful many Academy members saw the documentary. The same could be said for “Grateful,” written by legendary songwriter Diane Warren and the one historic spotlight on the underrated drama “Beyond the Lights.” The other contender Academy members likely caught was summer indie hit “Begin Again.” The film's nominated song is “Lost Stars,” which, frankly, is a pretty wonderful track and integral to the film's storyline. But…

This will be “Glory's” moment. Common and John Legend have performed this song live almost anywhere they could for months. They performed it at Sundance and, most memorably, at the end of the Grammy Awards earlier this month (a performance that will be hard to top during the Oscar show itself). It's a very powerful track that is arguably more important, emotional and memorable than the rest of the competition. Of course, there may be some Academy members who vote for “Everything is Awesome” to attempt to make a point to the Animation Branch, but it would be stunning for “Glory” not to win.

Biggest campaign moment: Tough one. Probably “Glory” performing at the end of the Grammy Awards. It wasn't even nominated there (it will be eligible next year) and was a major “stamp” of approval from the Recording Academy to their cinematic peers.

Will win: “Glory” from “Selma”
Should win: “Glory” from “Selma”

While film actors seem to vie their whole lives to be recognized by AMPAS for even just a single performance, it's amazing how many singers and non-actors all but wander into receiving Oscar nominations. 

For instance: Did you know that Lesley Gore, who just passed away at the age of 68, was an Oscar nominee for a song she co-wrote from “Fame”? Turns out her oeuvre of classic songs covers more than the importance of crying jags. Who knew?

With less than a week until the Oscars, let's take a fond and befuddled look back at 10 singers who scored Oscar nominations we'd totally forgotten about. This goes beyond flashy winners like Jennifer Hudson and Elton John and enters the sinister, intriguing realm of — oh, yes — VH1 veterans of the early 2000s.

Screenwriters never have it easy, do they? They often complain they are seen as second class citizens to the director. Actors often get credit for improvising a line they wrote and, worse, producers will often play games with the media, insisting they came up with a key storyline or the entire project themselves. Things get even more complicated with the sometimes unfair arbitration rules that often find the wrong writer getting final credit for a project (often because of a contract he or she signed). Frankly, all of this adversity might be one reason why winning an Academy Award means so much to a working Hollywood screenwriter.  

This year's crop of Original Screenplay nominees are all worthy of taking home Oscar on their previous merits. Without a true “first-timer” in the group*, it goes without saying whoever wins this year might find the spoils that much sweeter. “Boyhood's” Richard Linklater is now a three-time screenplay nominee. “Birdman's” Alejandro González Iñárritu is a previous Oscar nominee for directing and producing “Babel.” Two of his co-writers, Nicolás Giacobone and Armando Bo, have been at it for awhile. “Nightcrawler's” Dan Gilroy has has been writing in Hollywood for over 20 years. “Foxcatcher's” Dan Futterman was nominated for “Capote” in 2005 and E. Max Frye has been in the biz for almost 30 years, an Emmy nominee for “Band of Brothers.” Wes Anderson has been nominated in this exact category two times previously and has a Best Animated Feature Film nod to boot. Are many of the contenders in this category due? You bet they are, and that's one reason why we're going with Mr. Anderson.

*Obviously, “Birdman” and “Budapest” are nominees Alexander Dinelaris and Hugo Guinness' first produced works, but we're leading with Iñárritu and Anderson.

One of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” tied for the most nominations this year with “Birdman,” but over the last two weekends it has gone on to win the BAFTA Award and the WGA Award for original screenplay. “Birdman” wasn't eligible for WGA, but won at the Golden Globes. “Budapest” took home Best Picture – Comedy or Musical from the HFPA, but, hey, let's not give them too much credit. Either film could have flipped those wins and everyone would have gone home happy. “Budapest” also took home LAFCA, NYFCC and the National Society of Film Critics' screenplay honors. That is a serious bucket load of kudos to deal with in a race seemingly as tight as this. And, frankly, it may not be that close.

While there have been numerous surprises in this category over the years (although arguably more in Best Adapted Screenplay), let's take a minute to look at the last three winners: Woody Allen (“Midnight in Paris”), Quentin Tarantino (“Django Unchained”) and Spike Jonze (“Her”). All are iconic filmmakers with singular visions. It's one reason why some seem to believe “Birdman” and “Boyhood” have a shot here. Except members may realize they can recognize these two films in bigger categories such as Best Picture and Best Director. Those votes may split or lean one way or another (a conversation for another time), but don't put it past the majority of the Academy to vote this way. And frankly, Anderson, like his contemporary Jonze last year, might just be due.

“Budapest” may be Anderson at the peak of his cinematic powers. The lessons he learned in stop-motion animation on “Fantastic Mr. Fox” helped form his previous work, “Moonrise Kingdom,” and that carefully composed style carried over to “Budapest,” which may be his most entertaining and touching picture to date. Academy members are in the business. They know how hard it is to pull off something as delicate in style and manner as “Budapest.” They realize it's not just storyboards and production design. The plan has to be written and the story must be just as significant as the pizzazz swirling around it. “Budapest” may not be as serious or profound as “Boyood” and “Birdman” are to some, but the intricacies in the writing and the incredibly witty dialogue? Best Original Screenplay is where you reward it if you can.

Biggest campaign moment: Actually, it's the same moment as with the Adapted Screenplay category: “Whiplash's” surprising qualification in the other field. That being said, “Selma's” snub here was huge. If the Academy was going to significantly reward Ava DuVernay's drama anywhere it might have been in Best Original Screenplay.

Should have been here: “Selma” (Paul Webb), “The Skeleton Twins” (Mark Heyman, Craig Johnson), “Top Five” (Chris Rock), “Wild Tales” (Damián Szifrón)

Will win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Should win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”

On one hand, the Best Visual Effects Oscar has felt like it should go ahead and be engraved since before the season really took off. On the other, the frontrunner from afar crashed on the rocks of some divisive critical opinion in November, leaving some question as to how things might actually shake out. Let's take a look…

It seems more than apparent that Marvel Studios' “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” and Fox's “X-Men: Days of Future Past” won't be going any farther than the nominations stage, and that's fine. Both teams probably consider themselves lucky to have pushed into the field, particularly the “Captain America” crew after the first film's dazzling “Skinny Steve Rogers” work failed to find a spot. So this is really a race between three films.

“Guardians of the Galaxy” is a popular pick for those who think the prestige player in the bunch will be a tough pill to swallow for voters or that the other summer blockbuster in the fray just doesn't have the support elsewhere to substantiate a win. Not one Marvel Studios film has won an Oscar yet, however. Yes, “Guardians” led the 2014 box office for a time (it was recently usurped by “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1” and both may be surpassed by “American Sniper” in time), but that wasn't enough for “The Avengers” two years ago. Granted, “Life of Pi” was far stiffer competition than “Guardians” faces, but still, it would simply be a surprise.

“Interstellar” won the BAFTA award, which ought to be a little telling. Only twice in the last 14 years has the BAFTA winner gone on to lose the Oscar. The Brits even correctly foreshadowed “The Golden Compass” in 2007. (Though it's worth bringing up the fact that the British Academy has shifted its voting process in recent years, rendering its history somewhat moot when weighing the options.) Either way, this is a prestige film from a respected blockbuster filmmaker and, of considerable note, it's the film with the most nominations in this field (five).

Which brings me to “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.” Like “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” which lost this award to “Hugo” in 2011, Best Visual Effects is the film's only nomination. That hurts because it shows a lack of support elsewhere. Naturally, the film dominated the Visual Effects Society Awards (where “Interstellar,” too, won a prize), but that was specifically voted upon by visual effects artists, who understand that the work done on this film is probably more meaningful to the future of the business than anything present in the other nominees. But at the Oscars, the film needs to sell other artists besides just those in the visual effects community, and as well-regarded as this series is, it might be too steep a hill to climb.

Biggest campaign moment: As soon as it became apparent that “Interstellar” wouldn't be an across-the-board Oscar player – basically immediately after the first press screening – it's “sure thing” status took a big knock here, no question. It's largely why there's still a conversation in the category at all. And on the inside baseball side of things, Warner Bros.' overall lack of campaign support for former financier partner Legendary's “Godzilla” was sort of deafening and unfortunate.

Should have been here: Certainly “Godzilla,” but the eerie, truly singular work done on “Under the Skin” could have used some love here as well.

Will win: “Interstellar”
Should win: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”

Neil Patrick Harris is clearly going to be one of the smarter hosts in Oscar history.

The actor opened up in a new “Academy Originals” video about his plans for Sunday's ceremony, and although he didn't give much away, he has (seemingly) put real and comprehensive thought into his act. He says he's watched past ceremonies and analyzed what did and didn't work. Do we think Seth MacFarlane put such care into his hosting gig? I sincerely doubt it.

Check out his plan below. I'm really, really psyched for the ceremony.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDn3MqqALEE]

As we touched on in Writers Guild Awards coverage over the weekend, the screenplay categories are a certifiable mess this year because of all the unexpected wild cards. Best Picture frontrunner “Birdman” was ineligible for WGA. Indie favorite “Whiplash” competed in the original category with the WGA but was deemed adapted by the Academy. There hasn't been a lot of consistency in the run-up to the Oscars, so basically, you can argue things just about any way you'd like and you would have a point. But let's look at adapted specifically.

If any of the nominees is just happy to be here, it's probably the best of the lot. Paul Thomas Anderson couldn't even get a little love from the Guild, which opted for “Guardians of the Galaxy” rather than “Inherent Vice.” Luckily, the Academy's writers branch stuck up for him and here he is, destined to be a bridesmaid for the film with the least amount of overall nominations in the category. Adapting Thomas Pynchon deserves a salute by itself, even if “Vice” was a novel more given to translation than his previous work.

“American Sniper” just crossed $300 million at the domestic box office, which is objectively staggering. And the film's perceived political divisiveness hasn't really made it's way too deeply into the Academy. It has fans, it's getting plenty of Best Picture votes and Bradley Cooper is a definite wild card in Best Actor. So it's possible voters will look to this category to throw it and writer Jason Hall some love.

But “The Theory of Everything” kept everything real interesting a little over a week ago when Anthony McCarten won the adapted prize at the BAFTA Awards. It was clearly a beloved film with the Brits, beating out two fellow Oscar nominees in a category that included… “Paddington.” So it's hard to glean a lot from that victory, other than to note that, obviously, it has some support.

The race truly seems to boil down to WGA winner Graham Moore for “The Imitation Game” versus Damien Chazelle for “Whiplash.” And the Oscars will be the first time the two young men have squared off with one another due to the Academy's unexpected detour from WGA regulation on “Whiplash's” category placement. You could argue it a million ways. “The Imitation Game” has eight nominations to “Whiplash's” five, but doesn't seem to have the fiery passion of Chazelle's film. There will be a desire to recognize “Whiplash” among its constituency, but J.K. Simmons is also, of course, already a given in Best Supporting Actor while “The Imitation Game” would appear to have fewer places to corral some love.

It's ironic at the end of the day for “Whiplash” to be here, because with the three-way battle going on in original, it probably wouldn't have as much of an angle on a win there. But anyway, we could talk about it all day. Let's boil it down…

Biggest campaign moment: As noted, “Whiplash” suddenly gets yanked from the original category, where it had been campaigned, to compete in the adapted field. The reasoning given by the Academy: a short film derived from a scene in the feature was screened at Sundance, ergo “published,” and so it's considered an adaptation.

Should have been here: Nick Damici and Jim Mickle's moody adaptation of Joe R. Lansdale's “Cold in July” or Dean DeBlois' brilliant job wrangling the “How to Train Your Dragon” series into an epic follow-up installment.

Will win: “The Imitation Game”
Should win: “Inherent Vice”