Alright, no second guessing on Sunday morning for this guy. I'm going to go ahead with my final guesses now and leave it to the Oscar Gods to play things out as they may. Then again, I say that now, but more than a few categories are giving me pause (Best Actress, best Art Direction, Best Costume Design). So one never knows. I could wake up in a cold sweat and make a change Saturday evening.

Here's what I'm going with, plus alternates (Gerard will check in later today with his final pre-Oscar "Tech Support" column):

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men" (alt. "Michael Clayton")
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men" (alt. Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood" (alt. George Clooney, "Michael Clayton")
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose" (alt. Julie Christie, "Away from Her")
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men" (alt. Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild")
Best Supporting Actress: Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton" (alt. Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone")
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Original Screenplay: "Juno" (alt. "Michael Clayton")

Best Art Direction: "There Will Be Blood" (alt. "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street")
Best Cinematography: "There Will Be Blood" (alt. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")
Best Costume Design: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (alt. "Atonement")
Best Film Editing: "The Bourne Ultimatum" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Makeup: "La Vie en Rose" (alt. "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End")
Best Music - Original Score: "Atonement" (alt. "Ratatouille")
Best Music - Original Song: "Once" (alt. "August Rush")
Best Sound Editing: "Transformers" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Sound Mixing: "Transformers" (alt. "No Country for Old Men")
Best Visual Effects: "Transformers" (alt. "The Golden Compass")

Best Animated Feature Film: "Ratatouille" (alt. "Persepolis")
Best Documentary Feature: "Taxi to the Dark Side" (alt. "No End in Sight")
Best Documentary - Short Subject: "Freeheld" (alt. "Sari's Mother")
Best Short Film - Animated: "Peter & the Wolf" (alt. "I Met the Walrus")
Best Short Film - Live Action: "The Tonto Woman" (alt. "At Night")

Been a slow week. Even the Variety blog has suffered. I never got around to typing out another prediction column this week, but the trusty asterisks have been updated accordingly in the sidebar. I'm kind of being lulled into the whole "No Country" stampede, but I don't know. It doesn't feel right.

Gerard will have a column up later today, speaking of "No Country." It'll be with the sound technicians behind the flick. Stay tuned for that.

...are coming. They are. It may be late, though. I'm dying, here.

In the meantime, Gerard and Brian have gone out on their respective limbs. We also linked to some other pundits' picks in the round-up at Variety this morning. Lots of thoughts. Lots of possibilities. Lots of tums.

It's a weird year. No one, but no one is willing to stake a claim on who is going to win what at this year's Academy Awards. Unlike in year's past, when we were pretty sure of at least a couple of categories going into the New Year, this time around, the frontrunners are silent. As a result, I haven't even bothered with that monthly list of winner predictions over at The Blog this time around because I just have no idea what to think, folks. And I'm not the only one confused.

So with that in mind, I thought it is as good a time as any to pull my head out of the sand and make some calls. Any and all of these could be grossly wrong in the end, but you gotta go on the record sooner or later. With that, here's how I think the winners list might shake out for the 80th Annual Academy Awards:

Best Picture: "Into the Wild"
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Best Supporting Actor: Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Best Supporting Actress: Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Original Screenplay: "Juno"
Best Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Best Cinematography: "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Costume Design: "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Best Film Editing: "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Best Makeup: "La Vie en Rose"
Best Music - Original Score: "Atonement"
Best Music - Original Song: "Into the Wild
Best Sound: "Transformers"
Best Sound Editing: "Transformers"
Best Visual Effects: "Transformers"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Foreign Language Film: "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"

Tally:
"Into the Wild" - 4
"Transformers" - 3
"La Vie en Rose" - 2
"No Country for Old Men" - 2
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" - 2
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days," "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Juno," "Ratatouille," "There Will Be Blood" - 1

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd"
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
(alt. Denzel Washington, "American Gangster")
(pleasant surprise: Sam Riley, "Control")

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Amy Adams, "Enchanted"
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
(alt. Laura Linney, "The Savages")
(pleasant surprise: Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution")

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Bosco, "The Savages"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
(alt. Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford")
(pleasant surprise: Max von Sydow, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Vanessa Redgrave, "Atonement"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
(alt. Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There")
(pleasant surprise: Jennifer Garner, "Juno")

Performance by a Cast
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
(alt. "Charlie Wilson's War," "Hairspray," "Sweeney Todd")
(plesant surprise: "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "I'm Not There")

***made some last minute changes here***

Alright, the HFPA. They like what they like. They've marginalized themselves in the last two or three years as it pertains to "guessing" the Academy's tastes, but that's okay. It's better to have a different set than the same old, same old. That said, this group is still a blatant troupe of starf***ers. They like to fill the tables of the Beverly Hilton with Hollywood's finest, and I guess that's their preogative.

I've gone over the films in contention and come up with as good a set of predictions as any, I suppose. Tomorrow's announcement might not mean a lot in the spread of the Oscar season, but you better believe it'll be the jumpstart for a number of post-Globes parties!

The prdictions (with more after the jump):

Best Picture (Drama)
“Atonement”
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
“Into the Wild”
“Michael Clayton”
“No Country for Old Men”
(alt. “Eastern Promises,” “The Great Debaters”)

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
“Across the Universe”
“Charlie Wilson’s War”
“Hairspray”
“Juno”
“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
(alt. “Once,” “The Savages”)

EDITED: Final predictions were altered slightly in the run-up to the announcement. We'll see how I do.

Already???

Well, let's give it a whirl:

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"

Top 10 Films of the Year
"Atonement"
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"Into the Wild"
"The Kite Runner"
"Juno"
"Lust, Caution"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"The Savages"

Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "The Savages"

Best Actress
Amy Adams, "Enchanted"

(more predictions after the jump)

I used to think that if I ever met God, he’d look like Kenny Rogers. It just seemed about right. And like The Gambler said, “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.” But I don’t even think the almighty himself would know how to call the 2006 film awards season.

A year like this presents that unique opportunity in the world of prognostication, free of definitives, seemingly clear of “safe” bets, where any of the five nominated films for Best Picture could walk away with the top prize. So why not play the outside odds? Why not place a hop bet on a hard eight, close your eyes and wait for the stickman’s call? (I bet that’s the only craps reference you’ve come across in Oscarland.)

With that in mind, in either my infinite wisdom or my unparalleled stubbornness, I’ve decided to play the cards I’ve been considering heavily for the better part of four months. Sure, I folded this hand once pre-nominations, but not this time. Even if the allure of being alone in a prediction settles nicely with this rebel, I still feel that Clint Eastwood’s “Letters from Iwo Jima” is the film that can throw a wrench into the machinery of Oscar night, 2007.

The Screen Actors Guild awards will land Sunday night, and in a season that has proven itself just this week to be a bit less confined by the status quo than we would have expected, anything seemingly can happen. The race everyone will be looking to is Best Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture, where two of this year's Best Picture nominees sit perched for the beginnings of a final sprint to the finish.

Here's a look at how I expect the night to unfold.

The Main and Tech Category charts have been updated, linked both below and in the side bar. I have ranked all nominees in order of likelihood for the win. Please note that prior rankings were in order of likelihood for nominations.

Now...this day needs to be over. What a dizzy time it's been.

Main Category Charts
Technical Category Charts
Oscar Predictions Archive

The Art Directors Guild and Cinema Audio Society are each dishing out nods on Thursday, and though I want to rattle off some predictions, I don't feel like going through the pomp and circumstance of last week to do so. SO, here's what I'm thinking, free of lengthy explanation:

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY (CAS) Predictions
"Apocalypto"
"Blood Diamond"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
(alt: "Casino Royale")

ART DIRECTORS GUILD (ADG) Predictions

Contemporary:
"Babel"
"Casino Royale"
"Poseidon"
"Running with Scissors"
"World Trade Center"
(alt.: "Blood Diamond")

Period:
"The Black Dahlia"
"Curse of the Golden Flower"
"Dreamgirls"
"Marie Antoinette"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest"
(alt.: "Flags of Our Fathers" or "Letters from Iwo Jima")

Fantasy:
"Children of Men"
"Eragon"
"Pan's Labyrinth"
"Superman Returns"
"V for Vendetta"
(alt.: "The Fountain")

Will they give Henry Bumstead a mention for his swansong efforts? I'm not too sure, but we'll see. And again, I'm refraining from classification on "The Illusionist" or "The Prestige," but more than likely they'll fall under the "period" category as the former did with the Costume Designers Guild. Neil Burger's film has had a decent showing so far, so it might just turn up here on Thursday.

I certainly won't be around these parts tomorrow, so I'll go ahead with a quick look at the HFPA's Golden Globe Awards.

"The Departed" asserted itself pretty clearly for those who had doubts over the weekend as the Broadcast Film Critics Association handed the film their Best Picture and Best Director prizes. All of tomorrow's races seem to be up in the air more than any other year. Literally, three films in each Best Picture race have clear shots at taking the win.

(Predictions after the jump.)

As this week's guilds have come and gone, I've updated the sidebar predictions. But...I'm getting dizzy with it all, so after letting it settle over the weekend, I'll be back Monday with another column and fresh charts.

Until then, give the Gurus of Gold a look at Movie City News. Lots of slipping and sliding going on.

Things aren't slowing down. We've got one more group of pros set to announce tomorrow: the editors. Here's a look at the two categories:

AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS (ACE) Predictions

Drama:
"Babel," Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione
"The Departed," Thelma Schoonmaker
"Flags of Our Fathers," Joel Cox
"The Queen," Lucia Zucchetti
"United 93," Clare Douglas, Richard Pearson, Christopher Rouse
(alt.: "Bobby," Richard Chew)

Comedy/Musical:
"Cars," Ken Schretzmann
"The Devil Wears Prada," Mark Livolsi
"Dreamgirls," Virginia Katz
"Little Miss Sunshine," Pamela Martin
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," Stephen E. Rivkin, Craig Wood
(alt.: "Borat," Craig Alpert, Peter Teschner, James Thomas)

This guild tends to do a good job of landing the Best Picture nominees across their feature film categories. Last year, Michael Kahn's nomination for "Munich" was a pretty good indication for that film, and this year, things aren't as dicey in the big category, so I think we can expect all the frontrunners to show up.

Sadly, I get the indication that "Stranger than Fiction"'s lack-luster box office intake will leave Matt Cheese's rather brilliant work out of the fray entirely, but I hope I'm wrong about that. Also, "Happy Feet" and Christian Gazal's efforts could be waiting to pounce, but comedy is a tough category this year, and given that Pixar has shown up consistently with the guild, I'll place my animated bets with "Cars."

Elsewhere, I guess we'll know for certain whether anyone - ANYONE - saw "Letters from Iwo Jima." Ballots were due for the ACE two days ago, so there has been ample time. But regardless, Joel Cox has "Flags of Our Fathers" to float his boat...maybe.

I'll leave you with my documentary predictions.

Documentary:
"An Inconvenient Truth," Jay Lash Cassidy, Dan Swietlik
"Deliver Us from Evil," Matthew Cooke
"The War Tapes," Steve James, Leslie Simmer

The next wave of nominations comes tomorrow as the cinematographers, the second tech guild following the visual effects society, and the writers chime in with their perspectives. Here's a look at the ASC:

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS (ASC) Predictions
"Apocalypto," Dean Semler
"Babel," Rodrigo Prieto
"Children of Men," Emmanuel Lubezki
"The Departed," Michael Ballhaus
"Dreamgirls," Tobias A. Schliessler
(alt: "Flags of Our Fathers," Tom Stern)

I can't seem to shake the feeling that Dariusz Wolski might show up here for "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest." The work behind the camera, whatever one's opinion of the film itself, was a large step up from the original effort in 2003.

Also, Eduardo Serra seems a strong candidate to make an appearance for "Blood Diamond," despite critical assessment and despite the guild's lack of notice of his work in the past. "Blood Diamond" is a film that could tap into a surprising amount of guild support, actually, given the esteemed technicians behind the scenes. Especially in the sound mixing arena.

Instead, I'm going to go with Dean Semler's breakthrough digital lensing of "Apocalypto" as the perennial guild nominee neglected by the cinematographers' branch of the AMPAS. His (or whoever's) absense there could clear the way for either Xiaoding Zhou ("Curse of the Golden Flower") or Guillermo Navarro ("Pan's Labyrinth"), but truthfully he could find some love with the AMPAS as well. However, also potentially showing up with the guild but missing with the Academy is Tom Stern, not for "Letters from Iwo Jima," but for "Flags of Our Fathers."

Stay tuned later today for a preview of the WGA announcement.

Alrighty, so the LAFCA went with "Letters from Iwo Jima" as I had anticipated, though they left absolutely nothing for Marty and "The Departed." Very strange, but alas, the NYFCC announce their awards tomorrow, and you can bet Scorsese's latest will be all over the place there.

The Gotham folks tend to be a bit more high brow, if you will, in a seemingly willful fashion. I wouldn't expect a whole lot of love for Eastwood there, either. They went with the Clint in 2004 for Best Director, but they weren't overly accepting of "Mystic River" and might want to look elsewhere. "The Departed" could really clean up as a result, especially now that the LA guys and gals have stiffed the film altogether.

Gerard was good enough to post the full rundown of LA winners in The Blog as I was out and about today. My commentary on today's winners can be found there now as well.

(NYFCC predictions after the jump.)

Well, the LAFCA announce their winners this weekend, and you know what? I'm betting they go with Clint Eastwood's follow-up effort just like the National Board of Review did this afternoon. This is a town that bows at the Eastwood's feet, and knocking these two films out of the park (in their view, anyway) would be seen as just another high mark.

"The Good Shepherd" was the last film to screen for the LAFCA, I believe, but "Letters from Iwo Jima" screened right before that, last Friday night, for the BFCA. I assume there were plenty of the LA folks straggling around as well. And guess who was in attendance? The man himself. The Clint. Talk about leaving a good taste in the group's collective mouth on the cusp of their voting process.

So, it is just as possible the group could split and give Eastwood the directing award for his one-two punch, thereby clearing the Best Picture slot up for "The Departed" or "The Queen," still two of, if not the most critically acclaimed films of the year. But I sense something very -- "Million Dollar baby" about all of this.

(LAFCA Predictions follow after the jump.)

I don't know if the readers keep up with these at The Blog, but every month I toss up a fresh set of predictions for Oscar wins in every category, and, well, I'm leaping off the deep with this month's set.

The Oscar column from last Monday pretty much put me in print as claiming that, in my view, "Letters from Iwo Jima" could pull down the win in the Best Picture category. Most have long chalked that statue up for "Dreamgirls," and following screening that film myself some weeks back, I began to tilt toward the "Departed" side of things in the equation. But the hollow nature of the "Departed" narrative, the random, explosive violence (that has no emotional context and can therefore not be seen in the same arena as the violence of "Braveheart" or "The Silence of the Lambs" when it comes to Oscar hopes) kept digging at me as a hinderence for the film.

The National Board of Review announces their annual list of winners tomorrow, kicking off the awards season kudos-coaster in earnest. Year after year this group prides itself on being the first out of the gate, lending serious Oscar consideration to this contender or that by being the first to dish honors. Think "Moulin Rouge!" taking down their Best Picture win in 2001, or Halle Berry winning the Best Actress award the very same year for "Monster's Ball."

This year has boasted a unique mixture of filmmaking efforts, and I for one am excited to see where the kudos will fall. So with that, I'll just toss up some NBR predictions and see how it pans out tomorrow morning.

Best Picture
"The Queen"

Top Ten Films of the Year
"Babel"
"The Departed"
"Dreamgirls"
"Flags of Our Fathers"
"Letters from Iwo Jima"
"Little Miss Sunshine"
"Half Nelson"
"Inside Man"
"The Queen"
"United 93"

(More predictions after the jump.)

I've finally settled on a list of foreign language film predictions, which you'll find in the sidebar. No chart yet, but as always, check out Nathaniel's coverage of the race at The Film Experience for thorough analysis.