Here’s the pre-Toronto guesses from the group, via Movie City News. Additionally, we were polled on picks for an actor and an actress that could pop up as a “surprise” nominee. People like Michelle Yeoh and Charlize Theron don’t really qualify for me (the former dripping with bait, the latter stretching herself again in a role many expect to find traction). Ditto Gary Oldman, certainly. So I went with Kristin Scott Thomas and Rhys Ifans, one of which potentially has a stealth studio push coming, the other getting talked up by everyone I know who has seen the film. In any case, we’re just getting our engines humming, I guess.
(EDIT: Now that Poland has corrected his typo, the order is slightly different.)
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39 responses to “Gurus back on the attack”
Ides of March FTW! Sad day for The Tree of Life.
What’s “Men Who Hates Women” (Dragon Tattoo, however, this english title is absolutely terrible) doing on there? Without having seen it obviously, I don’t think there’s any chance in a million years that’s going to end up as one of the ten.
I’ve probably jinxed it now.
How in the world is Gary Oldman a potential surprise nominee? He’s been on every prognosticator’s list that I’ve seen.
Ah, sorry Kris, I didn’t see that you mentioned him. But I agree that Charlize Theron wouldn’t seem like much of a surprise either.
That’s very interesting about Rhys Ifans. I thought he was terrific in “Greenberg” last year.
It looks like Poland’s “#2” vote didn’t register on his charts. I’m assuming it went to War Horse.
@Liz. I thought the same exact thing about Oldman. Same goes for Dujardin, for that matter. EVERY prognosticator has them both in their top five.
As for ‘Tree of Life’, it’s not the type of film to get big Oscar nominations, and in the long run, it doesn’t need them. The film will hold up incredibly well as the years go by, while most of the films that WILL be nominated will be long forgotten (how many people actually remember that ‘The Hours’, ‘The Green Mile’, or ‘Chocolat’were BP nominations?) There is a major misconception by the mainstream that the Academy falls too much in love with “arty” movies over mainstream fare, but in truth they have just as strong an aversion to real “art” films as the general public. The nominations that ‘The Thin Red Line’ back in 1998 give some people an odd notion that the Academy loves Malick, wherein ‘The Thin Red Line’ is probably the most uncharacteristic BP nomination in the past thirty years (alongside MAYBE ‘District 9’ or ‘A Serious Man’, beneficiaries of an expanded field) for them.
I honestly hope that half of these films will not be nominated and especially those made for no other reason than to win an Oscar, like J.Edgar made to win Leonardo best actor statue. He’s a good actor and he should have an Academy award, but all those biopics make me sick.
Midnight In Paris is great and I can’t wait to see Tinker,Tailor,Soldier,Spy
“how many people actually remember that ‘The Hours’,”
Bad example. In any case, it’s amazing how easily some people bestow the gifts of BOTH foresight and hindsight upon themselves. (I mean no offense at all but I really do think that a lot of people remember The Hours).
As for Malick, I wouldn’t necessarily take the fact that “The New World” didn’t get a BP nod as a sign that the Academydoesn’t care about him.
The New World had a solitary nomination. I’m pretty certain that there are many individuals within the Academy that admire his work, but as a collective entity, he doesn’t make the type of films they go for (once again, at least in terms of nominating). I don’t think they necessarily “don’t care about him,” but look at the BP nominees over the last couple of decades and tell me that ‘The Thin Red Line’ doesn’t stand out as at least slightly off the beaten path of what they recognize.
I’m supposing we just saw something different in ‘The Hours’…
As for both foresight and hindsight, I believe I’m only applying afterthought. There are more conversations held about films that SHOULD have won or SHOULD have been nominated than how great a field of actual nominees was. Quite often, voters get caught up in the moment or timeliness of a movie. They fall for campaigns, get too caught up in who’s “overdue”, or go overboard for a zeitgeist film. We look back at 1968 and assume that the omission of ‘2001: A Space Odyssey’ from the BP nominations was probably controversial. Truth is, there was more curiosity over Paul Newman’s lack of a directing nomination for ‘Rachel, Rachel’. Some might not think much of Barbra Streisand missing out on directing nominations for ‘Yentl’ or ‘Prince of Tides’, but both times it caused a stir. We assume that the 1990 Best Picture race was a heavyweight bout between ‘GoodFellas’ and ‘Dances With Wolves’, but it was never a race. Costner’s flick dominated awards season, and no other film established itself as true competition. Regardless of what you may think of these nominations or omissions, the point I’m making is more that in hindsight, we tend to apply what we think of these instances with puzzlement being we aren’t caught up in the moment.
Who knows, ‘Tree of Life’ might very well shock us and get a BP nomination, but given what the Academy nominates, it would be the most abstract film ever nominated (and I’m more than open to anyone offering up other films here).
Nothing’s set in stone, obviously, but I really don’t get why so many people think “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” is going to make out so well. (As far as I can tell, they’re the same people who were insisting Noomi Rapace was going to be nominated for Best Actress last year. )
Kris: Just looking at your updated sidebarlpredictions. You have Viola Davis listed for Lead in “The Help”. Is it one of those borderline lead/supporting performances where she could be campaigned as supporting (where I suspect she’d have a better shot) or is it unquestionably a leading role. I only ask cause I got the vibe Emma Stone was the lead by herself.
I consider Stone the lead, too, but Disney is four square behind a lead push for Davis and there are a lot of people who feel it’s her film so I went with that.
@Zach, nominated for what- The Social Network? She could have a chance with TGWTDT but it all comes down to how the film plays and whether it can overcome all the “misogynist” backlash. We shall see.
War Horse’s position is quite curious. It’s either very high or very low ranked among the gurus (save for Wloszczyna, who placed it fifth).
I’d place it lower-ish right now. If it’s not playing at any festival, it better be artistically and/or financially impressive enough to offset all the hype and acclaim the competition might have built by the end of the year, and so far to me it doesn’t seem to be such a homerun movie as Avatar was.
It’s got the Tony Award to help things, but I don’t know if it’ll really change things to its favor by then.
@Zach
The way I look at it is…imagine a movie released on December 21st. A movie with a Metascore of 75-85 and a 85-95% on the Tomatometer. A movie adapted from the first in a well-loved trilogy of books. A movie destined to become a box-office hit. A movie directed by a guy who was the frontrunner for the best directing Oscar of the year before. A movie with a performance that will likely be the “breakthrough” performance for an actress (a performance showy enough to not exactly be unworthy of Oscar consideration). A movie with a prestigious behind-the-scenes crew.
And then I think…could/does The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo meet all of the above statements? And if the answer is “almost definitely” I say: this is likely to be an Oscar nominee for best picture, regardless of how “unfriendly” some of the material from the book may be for Oscar.
Why does no one think that The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will do well? It’s based on popular source material with at least one iconic character. The director is very popular with the Academy. So, why the doubt?
Rapace wasn’t in “The Social Network”; she was the lead in the original Swedish films.
Here’s my take: The Descendants and Girl W. Dragon Tattoo won’t make the B.P. The Descendants because of intuition. Girl w. Dragon Tattoo will be compared to the book AND the original Swedish film.
m1: for the exact same reason you listed.
I’m with doubles, Tree of Life may not be a frontrunner right now, but it still has the biggest emotional impact out of most of the films listed. Remember when The Reader was one of these vaulted leaders, wait, no one remembers The Reader.
My bad, I for some reason read Rooney Mara. Ha, a long day of law school will do that to ya.
I remember the buzz around The Hours and I remember the picture quite well. It holds up to repeated viewing and will be highly regarded by cineastes for years to come. Generally speaking, though, I see your point, johnny doubles.
It looks like Rooney Mara is going to try and reinvent what ScarJo did in The Girl With the Pearl Earring.
Also kudos to you Kris for actually following the instructions and selecting potential SURPRISE actors and actresses.
Some people chose Gary Oldman, Jean Dujardin, Elizabeth Olsen. Not a surprise people.
Yeah, don’t go around saying certain films are “forgotten” when it’s clearly just a sentiment completely influenced by your own opinion. “The Hours” was my personal choice for best film of 2002, and not only that, was one of my favorite films of the past decade.
Andrej, apart from not getting what War Horse is in a first place, you don’t even understand that it doesn’t have to be Avatar to do well in its date. And as for hype and acclaim, it’s the competition that should beware (there is a reason why it’s ranking so high, especially if you add in Poland’s missing vote).
As for style, well there’s always that teaser.
The corrected chart is up on Poland’s site by the way.
“there is a reason why it’s ranking so high”
Yeah, that has nothing to do with quality of the actual film (which no one has seen) and everything to do with a schmaltzy trailer that makes it look like Grade A Oscar bait. Let’s keep perspective here.
Regarding The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, it so doesn’t feel Academy-esque for whatever reason. The trailer was bad ass, but with the new voting system, will a film of that ilk get enough support to make it in to the Best Pic race? My gut says no. Rooney Mara is beguiling but she has a ton of competition in not only the established actresses like Streep and Close but also the new faces like Felicity Jones and Elizabeth Olsen. And what of Michelle Williams, Vera Farmiga, Viola Davis, etc. I’m not feeling it. Also, sometimes when a film is based on well-regarded source material that is as popular as Dragon Tattoo is, there is a chance (a big chance actually) that it will disappoint its core audience. How many times do you hear people walk out of a movie based on a book they loved saying “it wasn’t as good as the book.” I don’t know about this one.
Interesting that Pond, Poland and Thompson all have ‘The Artist’ at #1.
That’s where I’d put it too, but I had no idea I was in such good company.
Can I ask a naive question (or maybe ignorant, I’m sorry)?
Who is this Felicity Jones? I’d never heard of her until about a month ago (this site). I saw the trailer for her movie with Yelchin – which, by the way, I think looks awful.
And why is there so much buzz around her? What else has she done? And has this movie been seen to say that it’s actually good or that she’s Oscar nom-worthy? Thank you. :)
JJ1: The movie was not only seen at Sundance in January, it won the Grand Jury Prize — as well as a Special Jury Prize for Jones’s performance. Buzz has been understandably strong ever since, even if “Martha Marcy May Marlene” emerged from the festival with more critics’ valentines.
Jones has essentially been doing her apprenticeship in British film and TV for a few years now. Also, you may have seen her — even if you don’t necessarily remember her — in The Tempest and Cheri. I guess people are thinking she could be this year’s Carey Mulligan-style breakout.
Maxim:
I get why it’s considered as a frontrunner, but I’d like to hear why Howell, Olsen, Pond and Wloszczyna have it ranked so low. I don’t know if it’s a matter of taste in film or actual foreseeing, but it’s an interesting twist regardless.
And while the Avatar comparison could have been a bit extreme (True Grit’s case seems to be closer), I think that if this movie will spend nearly the whole year unseen, it has to be dominantly impressive or it’s going to be another Munich for him (and having The King’s Speech as the latest winner, I’m also thinking the Academy this time might go for something less conventional). I can see something like The Artist (or TTSS, if it’s awesome) getting enough momentum to offset its hype by the time of its release.
It could go the same way for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but given it has back-to-back release dates with War Horse, I wonder if they might end up hurting each other, as they seem to be cinematic opposite poles… and there’s ‘Tintin’ too. War Horse at least has to be better than that if it really wants to change the tides in its favor.
But still, haven’t seen it, can’t assure it.
(btw, I only found out this morning War Horse it’s in #1 after correcting Poland’s vote, as last night it still was in #2).
Thank you Guy, for that info. :)
I haven’t seen ‘The Tempest’ yet (eek?), but I saw ‘Cheri’. I can’t say that I remember her.
I guess it’s just a ‘wait & see’ for me. I can only go on the buzz/early reviews (as you mentioned). I guess I just didn’t like the trailer. That doesn’t mean she isn’t great or the movie, either.
Thanks, again. :)
About Dragon Tattoo: the original was well-received but not many people were over enthusiastic about it. The other two films were lesser in quality.
The best comparison I can think of is Black Swan. With the new 5% rule in place, it may not have been nominated for Best Picture, but it still scored a directing nomination. If The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is a great movie (it’s almost destined to be a commercial hit) it will do well with the Academy. Comparisons will not hurt its chances that much.
given that it is only august, despite the gurus’ increasing accuracy each year, a good half of these won’t make the final ten. i don’t know how well people see j. edgar hoover’s and maggie thatcher’s lives as movie-worthy, but i really think both will be excellent not just in acting but in other aspects, and both will make the ten, and in fact be in the theoretical five. i also think that a movie like 50/50 could go in as the touching comedy we typically see nominated. as far as what will fail to make it from the gurus’ list, i can see the descendants and the tom hanks picture, as well as dragon tattoo and midnight in paris, being disappointments not in the overall sense but in the academy sense, ie they will be good but not as good as people expect. but i still think war horse and TTSS make it. i guess if i was making a list of ten, the only ones from the guru list i wouldn’t put on would be midnight in paris and dragon tattoo, replacing them with iron lady and 50/50, but i don’t see a frontrunner, except maybe my best expectations for j edgar and war horse.
this list seems full of movies of the type that just slide into that last best pic slot, is how i feel about it.
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Three thoughts:
(1) Why does Poland have ten? It seems highly unlikely that there will actually be ten films that meet the 5% threshold.
(2) This year’s prospective nods have fewer summer pics. In 2010, there was “Hurt Locker”, “Basterds,” “Up” and “District 9.” Then, there was “Inception,” “Toy Story 3”, “Kids are All Right” and “Winter’s Bone.” Fewer AMPAS nods from earlier.
(3) The division on “Dragon Tattoo” seems to stem in part from Awards Season Style pitted up against the popularity of the series, Fincher, etc.
Are there any things to watch for in trying to figure out how these issues might be resolved? Critical acclaim. Most nominees in 2010 and 2011 were pretty high on the MCN compilation of Critics’ Top Ten Lists. Could critical support help Fincher? Also, some precursor groups seem to value popular support a lot. DGA, PGA, WGA, and AFI included several box office hits. They also went for “The Incredibles” and “Dark Knight” before that. Accordingly, it seems like “Dragon Tattoo” should get love with these organizations. No?