In Contention

Tag: Valentine’s Day

  • FIRST-HALF FYC: Best Supporting Actress

    It’s an Oscar complaint as unfailingly annual as telecast overlength and foreign-language category blunders: with the season so geared towards the glut of prestige titles released in the year’s final quarter, standout contenders from the mist-shrouded months of spring and the previous winter have to fight that much harder to be heard – that is, if anyone is listening at all.

    Year after year, numerous early-seen gems slip through the cracks as critics and voters alike rush to crown never, shinier attractions. With that in mind, welcome to First-Half FYC: a new weekly feature at InContention, wherein I’ll shine a light on the worthiest Oscar possibilities (or impossibilities) from the first six months of the 2010 release calendar.

    Each week, a different major category will be covered with alternative ballot of five potential nominees – some serious, others playful, some widely celebrated, others largely buried. All, however, are films or individuals that would breathe some fresh air into their respective races.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Win for ‘Shutter,’ new films stutter

    Cop Out*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Kevin Smith has never had a number one film at the box office and Martin Scorsese has ensured that he won’t buck the trend in 2010. “Shutter Island” is the top box office performer for the second weekend in a row, dropping 46% to $22.2 million. That puts it firmly in the could-have-been worse, could-have-been-better category and with $75.1 million in the bank so far, Paramount can consider their decision to move out of October justified, particularly since I don’t think the Oscars would have touched it with a 10-foot pole, but that’s just me.

    Smith’s “Cop Out” did manage an $18.6 million debut, handily becoming a career-high for its director. For Bruce Willis, on the other hand, it falls somewhere between “The Whole Nine Yards” and “The Kid,” amongst a bevy of forgettable titles. Reviews were scathing and drops should be harsh so it will be a close race with the $46 million of “Dogma” to the title of Smith’s biggest hit. If Warner Bros. was using this as an audition for a bigger franchise, I think Silent Bob has fluffed his chance. It should also be noted that the figure is inflated slightly by the extra seats Smith has to buy for himself when he went.

    Not too far off in third is “The Crazies,” which managed a $16.5 million debut from nearly 700 fewer screens than “Cop Out,” giving it the second-best per theater average in the top 10. Overture did a good job of raising awareness and interest amongst the target audience, which must not include me, because I never saw a single thing about it once, anywhere.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Leonardo leads (Donatello does machines)

    Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s fourth collaboration together has provided the former with his biggest debut ever and the latter’s second only to “Titanic.” $40.2 million is the estimate, which puts it a fraction behind “Madea Goes to Jail” from this same weekend last year and means that unless word of mouth is particularly poisonous, it should squeak past the $100 million mark. To do so, it’ll have to perform more like an esteemed thriller than a typical horror film as “Friday the 13th” could only translate a $41.4 million February opening into a $68.9 million total last year.

    Second place goes to “Valentine’s Day,” which suffered a morale-damaging 69% dip from last weekend. The drop was never going to be kind due to the holiday last Monday but only “New Moon” and Ang Lee’s “Hulk” have dropped harder while playing on more than 3,500 screens. I guess audiences decided not to go back and watch it again for all the hidden nuances in the way Jamie Foxx says “Damn!” to something off-screen.

    “The Wolfman” also fell 69% to $9.8 million and fifth place, although that was a bit more expected. It will now be lucky to gross $71 million, which is what it would need to surpass “Teen Wolf.” Maybe if Anthony Hopkins’s character was a bit more like Rupert “Stiles” Stilinksi, Universal could be a little closer to recouping that $150 million budget. Maybe throw in Del Toro doing a handstand on a horse and carriage ride? Just thinking out loud.

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Shutter’ to sink?

    (from left) Ben Kingsley and Leonardo DiCaprio in Shutter Island*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    It’s been a long time coming but “Shutter Island” finally hits screens this weekend, with no competition in sight. That’s right, Scorsese gets the weekend all to himself and his genre exercise, which is opening on just under 3,000 screens. The man is viewed as something of a deity, particularly on sites like this, and his fanbase clearly spans over more than one generation. At age 60, his career took a turn towards the populist and there seems to be no looking back. “Shutter Island” should be able to straddle the line between snobs and laymen, men and women and teens and adults. Sounds like a winning combination.

    “The Departed” opened to $31 million in 2006 and is Scorsese’s highest grossing film, along with the reason he has an Oscar on his mantle. Picking up a lifetime achievement gong at the Golden Globes last month is just another reason why his profile has never been higher across the country. His last attempt at this type of film was 1991’s “Cape Fear,” which opened with $18.5 million en route to a $143.6 million finish, and that’s certainly not out of reach here, although I’d say it’s unlikely. I’ll say $33 million for the weekend and then it’ll need strong word of mouth to hit $100 million.

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  • SUNDAY CENTS: Love glory

    Valentine's Day*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    The overwhelming demand to see an eclectic array of celebrities fall in love with as little character development as possible has led to “Valentine’s Day” both winning the weekend and posting the biggest President’s Day debut of all time, narrowly eclipsing “Ghost Rider.” $52.4 million is the gross, which should balloon to around $60 million including tomorrow, and you have your first $100 million earner of 2010 on the way. The timing couldn’t have worked out better, with Warner Bros. estimating today’s gross to be bigger than Friday or Saturday.

    It was a fierce battle for second place between “Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief” and “The Wolfman.” The former took the edge with $31.1 million, while the hairier option earned $30.6 million. That’s a win for Chris Columbus, who was in desperate need of one after “I Love You Beth Cooper” and “Rent,” and the fantasy flick should have enough juice to flirt with the $100 million barrier.

    “The Wolfman,” however, will likely have to settle for around $75 million and some solid overseas grosses. For a project as troubled as this was, Universal can’t complain. Believe it or not, that will make it the third biggest film Del Toro has ever been a part of after “Traffic” and “Sin City.”

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  • FRIDAY FORECAST: ‘Valentine’s Day’ love fest

    Benicio Del Toro in The Wolfman*All historical figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.

    Sorry this is late folks. I can remember all the words to “Teenage Dirtbag” by Wheatus without hearing it for five years but I can’t seem to remember to write this column every week.

    Anyway, it’s a big weekend. President’s Day means it’s a four-day tally and Sunday being Valentine’s Day means certain titles have a leg up. One such title is “Valentine’s Day,” starring at least one person you, your sister, your mother and your grandmother really like. The 75-year-old man who directed “Pretty Woman” is putting it all together and there’s really no stopping it.

    “50 First Dates” managed $55 million from the four-day weekend in 2004 and I’d say only the overachieving debut of “Dear John” will keep this lower. Give it $50 million for four days and $43 million for the three days.

    “The Wolfman” once seemed like a hot commodity. Mark Romanek was an inspired directing choice and Benicio Del Toro’s casting saved the production millions in makeup costs. But Romanek got replaced with Joe Johnston, the release date got delayed a couple times and the whole thing now looks like a giant turd. Still, enough people may be interested in some cheap thrills to get it to $27 million for the three days and $33 million for the long weekend.

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